AGA: Prediction Markets Stall Legal NFL Betting Growth

The American Gaming Association (AGA) expects National Football League (NFL) betting handle to remain virtually flat this season as prediction markets capture a growing share of Americans’ wagering dollars.

According to the AGA, Americans are estimated to legally wager $29.5 billion on the NFL via regulated sportsbooks this season, which starts Wednesday, Sept. 9, with a Super Bowl rematch between the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field in Seattle.

The AGA projects little growth from last season’s $29.4 billion handle, with AGA President and CEO Bill Miller attributing the slowdown to the rapid rise of prediction markets.

NFL Handle Growth Stalls

“We’re excited for the NFL season to kick off, as are millions of fans eager to engage with their favorite teams,” Miller said.

“Since the Supreme Court struck down the federal sports betting ban in 2018, legalized sports betting had seen tremendous growth. But this year is different. Since the widespread launch of backdoor sports betting on so-called ‘prediction markets,’ the growth of legal handle has stalled.”

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Novig continue to expand their sports offerings nationwide, which now make up the majority of their platform volume.

Regulatory Battles Heading to Higher Courts

Prediction markets and the regulated sportsbook industry are locked in a widening legal and regulatory battle over whether sports event contracts are federally regulated financial products or sports wagers subject to state gambling laws. The legal dispute appears increasingly bound for the U.S. Supreme Court.

“We know they have a very formidable offering,” said Dominic Hammond, senior vice president of sports at Caesars Digital. “They’re spending a lot of money. Fundamentally, we view their product as sports betting. If you can build a parlay, that’s sports betting. I don’t think you can call it anything else.”

Caesars Stays the Course

Despite the market shifts, prediction markets are not impacting Caesars’ core strategy going into the new NFL season, Hammond added.

“It goes back to how we develop product—primarily listening to our customers—and where we want to go internally,” he said. “We can take parlays in a completely different direction with features like Flex parlays. We’ve got Caesars Rewards, brand loyalty, and targeted promotions that prediction markets don’t have. So while they’re not changing our strategy, we fully view them as a competitor.”

Tax Revenues and Market Share at Risk

Legal, regulated gaming supports roughly 1.8 million jobs and generates significant tax revenues across legal jurisdictions. The AGA estimates prediction market platforms have siphoned away more than $1.3 billion in potential state gaming tax revenues since 2025.

“These ‘prediction market’ platforms are dangerously misleading consumers by marketing sports wagers as an investment, rather than what it is: entertainment,” Miller warned.

Meanwhile, sports-focused exchanges show no signs of slowing down. Novig reported a daily average contract volume of 23.3 million over a seven-day stretch in August, outpacing emerging competitors such as Rothera (18.0 million) and Underdog (16.0 million).