NFL Champion Odds: Prediction Markets for Super Bowl LXI

Week eight of the 2026 NFL season saw the final 100% record fall, as the Minnesota Vikings lost on the road against the Detroit Lions. The Bills extended their impressive start to 6-1 (.857) with a 26-point thrashing of the Ravens, as their probability of winning Super Bowl LXI increased by a single percentage point to 13% on Polymarket.

The 49ers remain the favorites to prevail with odds of 14%, although San Francisco enjoyed a bye in week eight.

Former favorites the LA Rams recorded their second successive victory at home against the ailing Chargers. This improved their regular season record to 4-4 (.500), and the Rams now have a 7% win probability in the market.

Polymarket traders have now bought shares worth over $71.5 million on the winner of the next Super Bowl. This number has increased sharply since the opening weekend. But who are now the best value picks in this market? Here’s my analysis of your available options.

Note: Our exclusive Polymarket promo code (CORG) will get you $20 after you sign up and deposit $10. Looking for other options? Here’s our list of the best sports prediction markets.

Appraising Value in the Rams: What Do the Odds Say?

“Los Angeles Rams” | “Yes” at 7¢ | 7% Chance

When the prediction market opened on February 9th, the Rams had an 8% probability of winning the 2027 Super Bowl. The addition of star defensive end Myles Garrett saw this figure more than double, with the 30-year-old having registered a record 23.0 sacks during the 2025/26 campaign and earned a seventh Pro Bowl selection. 

It should also be noted that the Rams came within four points of reaching the Super Bowl last year and won 12 regular-season games. The franchise averaged a league-high 30.0 PPG, too. 

The return of veteran league MVP Matthew Stafford and wide receiver Davante Adams also highlights the franchise’s desire to win now, rather than look too far into the future. However, relying on an aging thrower-receiver pair introduces risk, especially given the highly demanding and competitive nature of the NFL West Division.

This was potentially borne out during the opening day defeat against the 49ers. Stafford was withdrawn during the fourth quarter, fuelling speculation that he may have picked up a knock. Garrett also aggrevated a left knee injury in the season opener, and he has missed every game since.

Stafford at least returned against the Giants and threw an impressive 327 yards (and four touchdowns) in a 28-6 win. His total of 2,146 yards thrown is bettered only by Jordan Love at the time of writing, while he ranks joint-fourth for interceptions (eight).

The Rams now have a 7% chance of prevailing in Super Bowl LXI, which is much closer to their true win probability. A corresponding price of 8¢ also reflects their inconsistent form and occasionally vulnerable defence, notwithstanding its greater potential upside.

Trading “No” at 94¢ offers a maximum potential return of just 6.38%, too, so it’s better to pursue alternative outcomes here.

The Value Pick: Why the Bills Odds Have a Significant Upside

“Buffalo Bills” | “Yes” at 13¢ | 13% Chance

The offseason saw significant upheaval for the Bills, who parted ways with longtime head coach Sean McDermott and replaced him with offensive coordinator Joe Brady.

Brady is revered as the passing coordinator who inspired LSU’s record-breaking college football season in 2019. The Tigers went 15-0 and won the National Championship, while scoring an incredible 723 points at an average of 48.4 PPG. 

However, while Brady’s switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defensive base will take time to implement successfully, it also hints at a more aggressive approach that will maximize the talent of quarterback Josh Allen while he is in his prime.

Both Allen and the Bills have certainly excelled offensively so far. The quarterback has thrown a total of 1,793 yards and 11 touchdowns, while averaging 8.7 yards per passing attempt (he ranks fourth for this metric). As we’ve touched on, Buffalo now averages 33.3 PPG during the regular season and 35.3 on the road.

Concerns about the Bills defensive vulnerability are proving well-justified, however. Only seven franchises have conceded more PPG in the 2026 campaign, while the Bills are allowing an average of 352.14 defensive yards per game. However, they were much improved against the Ravens at the weekend and conceded just 10 points in total.

If you bought “Yes” shares in the Bills at 6.5¢ on June 24th, you could sell now and unlock an ROI of 100%. Although the price also has the potential to range between 15¢ and 20¢ as the regular season progresses, I wouldn’t buy at the current benchmark of 13¢ unless you intend to hold into the playoffs.

Baltimore Odds: Why the Ravens Offer Value at Their Discounted Price

“Baltimore Ravens” | “Yes” at 0.7¢ | 1% Chance

You could buy “Yes” shares in the Ravens at just 3¢ when the NFL winner market opened. However, this price had increased by 133.33% to 7¢ by October 20th, after Baltimore went 4-1 (.800) in their opening five matches.

However, this price has since plummeted by 90% to just 0.7¢, after a run of three successive losses against the Browns, the Bengals, and the Bills. Star quarterback Lemar Jackson also suffered a serious thumb injury against Buffalo, having missed the previous three games with an ankle knock.

The two-time MVP has earned an ESPN QBR of 77.0 so far this season, highlighting his incredible influence on the team.

Reserve quarterback Tyler Huntley is also out for the season, so undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano will start against the Jaguars on Thursday night. Despite his inexperience, he threw 3,448 yards and 28 touchdowns for the Huskies at collegiate level last season, while he led the entire NFL with 509 passing yards in the preseason. He was also incredibly accurate, and completed 74.7% of his attempted passes.

Strength of schedule analysis also suggests that the Ravens have the fifth-easiest fixture list in 2026. The side is favoured to fare well in the AFC North Division, too. Overall, they retain a potent attack and relatively solid defense, although they have conceded 28.0 PPG across their previous three outings.

There’s potential value in buying “Yes” shares in the Ravens at just 0.7¢. Four of their next five opponents having losing records in 2026, so a solid run of form could send their price back into the 4¢ to 8¢ range. You could choose to sell at this stage, or hold further into the winter.

The Best Outside Odds: Consider the Vegas Raiders at Their Current Odds

“Las Vegas Raiders” | “Yes” at 0.3¢ | <1% Chance

Traders spent all summer sleeping on the Raiders, who went 3-14 in the AFC and averaged just 14.2 PPG throughout last season. The team also endured a transitional offseason, after which their “Yes” share price in the NFL winner market had slumped to just 0.4¢.

This seemed artificially low, however, especially when you consider that many of the Raiders’ offseason changes had been positive. 

For example, number one Draft pick Fernando Mendoza has instantly added depth to the QB position behind Kirk Cousins. What’s more, the franchise has appointed the aforementioned Klint Kubiak as head coach, with the former offensive coordinator renowned for his highly efficient running scheme.

Despite going 3-0 in their first three fixtures, however, a run of four successive defeats saw their “Yes” price contract to 0.3¢. However, this sequence has included close and competitive losses against the Chiefs and the Bills, while they snapped their losing streak with a thrilling, 38-33 win on the road against the Jets last weekend.

The objective here should be to hold your position into the winter at least. After a home game against the Seattle Seahawks on November 15th, LA have a more favorable strength of schedule. They remain firmly in playoff contention having gone 4-4 (.500) overall, and a sustained run of good form could still drive the Raiders’ “Yes” price up to around 4¢.

This will create an exit window and potential ROI above 400%. You can also look to buy-in now and hold until the end of the regular season at least. Just be mindful of low liquidity levels and the bid-ask slippage here.

The Last Word on NFL Championship Odds

The 49ers started the 2026/27 campaign priced at just 3.5¢. However, the value of their “Yes” shares has increased to 14.2¢, creating a hike of 305.71% as of November 4th. Quarterback Brock Purdy has starred for San Francisco so far, but the 49ers offer slightly less upside if you’re looking to buy-in now.

The aforementioned Chiefs have also started well in 2026 and seen their own “Yes” price surge by 151.43% overall since September 14th. The side is beginning to regain the trust of traders, too, after a poor 2025/26 campaign. However, they face a tough run of fixtures in weeks 12 through 17, while the Chiefs have now lost two successive road games at Seattle and Denver.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have also attracted over $2 million in trades and have gone 5-2 (.714) during the regular season so far. Their “Yes” price has already risen from 2.3¢ on September 4th to 8.4¢, while the franchise has recorded impressive home wins against the Browns, the Patriots, and the Eagles. A strength of schedule score of 0.490 will also favor the Jaguars throughout 2026.

Ultimately, how you trade this market will depend on your risk outlook. For example, the NFL boasts a huge field and is highly competitive, so teams rarely see their win probability exceed 15%-20% during the regular season. 

So, if you want to buy then sell your positions profitably prior to the playoffs, you’ll ideally need to identify undervalued outcomes that are currently priced lower than or around 10¢. It’s also important to set a clear exit strategy and track price fluctuations on a daily basis.

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