NFL Champion Odds: Prediction Markets for Super Bowl LXI

We’re now less than a month away from the start of the NFL regular season, and Polymarket traders have already bought shares worth over $43.3 million on the winner of Super Bowl LXI.

The LA Rams have emerged as the clear frontrunners, with their current win probability of 15% nearly double that of their closest rivals the Buffalo Bills (8%). 

However, traders may have overreacted to the Rams’ strong offseason, which saw the blockbuster acquisition of defensive end Myles Garrett from the Browns. This caused a rush to market as the Ram’s price leapt from 10¢ to 16¢, but potentially left franchises like the Bills and the Seahawks undervalued.

But who exactly are the best value picks in this market? Here’s my analysis of your available options.

Note: Our exclusive Polymarket promo code (CORG) will get you $20 after you sign up and deposit $10. Looking for other options? Here’s our list of the best sports prediction markets.

Are the Rams Significantly Overpriced? What Do the Odds Say?

“Los Angeles Rams” | “Yes” at 15¢ | 15% Chance

When the prediction market opened on February 9th, the Rams had an 8% probability of winning the 2027 Super Bowl. The addition of Garret has seen this figure nearly double, with the 30-year-old having registered a record 23.0 sacks during the 2025/26 campaign and earned a seventh Pro Bowl selection. 

It should also be noted that the Rams came within four points of the Super Bowl last year and won 12 regular-season games, while averaging a league-high 30.0 PPG. 

The return of veteran league MVP Matthew Stafford and wide receiver Davante Adams also highlights the franchise’s desire to win now, rather than look too far into the future.

However, relying on an aging thrower-receiver pair introduces risk, especially given the highly demanding and competitive nature of the NFL West Division. The franchise also endured a slightly underwhelming draft this summer, while Garrett must be integrated into a new defensive scheme alongside recently signed cornerbacks Trent McDuffie (trade) and Jaylen Watson (free agency).

Overall, the true probability of a Rams win is much closer to 8% than it is to 16%. This outcome is therefore significantly overpriced and offers little upside. Trading “No” at 86¢ offers only a nominal return of 16.28% too, so it’s better to pursue alternative outcomes before the regular season.

The Value Pick: Why the Bills Odds Have a Significant Upside

“Buffalo Bills” | “Yes” at 8¢ | 8% Chance

The offseason has seen significant upheaval for the Bills, who have parted ways with longtime head coach Sean McDermott and replaced him with offensive coordinator Joe Brady.

However, while Brady’s switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defensive base will take time to implement successfully, it also suggests a more aggressive approach that will maximize the talent of quarterback Josh Allen while he is in his prime.

Brady is revered as the passing coordinator who inspired LSU’s record-breaking college football season in 2019. The Tigers went 15-0 and won the National Championship, while scoring an incredible 723 points and averaging 48.4 PPG. 

Allen will therefore be allowed to dictate games for the Bills, while the acquisition of explosive wide receiver TJ Moore will provide an efficient outlet for the QB. Moore recorded six receiving touchdowns for the Bears last season, tying 26th for this metric overall. 

The Bills also have excellent roster depth and are slightly underpriced at 8¢. It’s certainly hard to imagine this price falling much further, while it has the potential to range between 15% and 20% as the season progresses. So, there may be value in buying “Yes” shares on the Bills now and selling later in the regular season.

Did you know?

Did you know?

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The Defending Champions: How are the Seahawks Faring in the NFL Prediction Markets?

“Seattle Seahawks” | “Yes” at 9¢ | 9% Chance

There’s an historical bias against the Seahawks, who won the Super Bowl so impressively back in February. Just eight franchises have won back-to-back championships since the Super Bowl’s inception, while the Patriots and the Chiefs are the only teams to achieve this since the turn of the century.

The Seahawks success was built on an incredible defensive structure, which was organized by head coach Mike Macdonald. The franchise conceded a paltry 16.9 PPG throughout last season, while they shut out the Patriots for the first three quarters of the 2026 Super Bowl.

Unsurprisingly, they’ve focused on improving their offense ahead of the new campaign, having hired Brian Fleury from the 49ers. He’ll favor a scheme-heavy attack, which will reduce the team’s reliance on wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba and compensate for the departure of Kenneth Walker.

Notre Dame running back Jadarian Price has been drafted to replace Walker directly, while the return of Rashid Shaheed will also give the Seahawks more options for QB Sam Darnold in attack.

The Hawks are likely to be competitive, but the loss of influential offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak and the sheer weight of history could count against them. Regardless, there’s value in buying “Yes” shares at a current price of 9¢, before looking to secure an exit once this increases to 14¢-15¢ during the regular season.

The Best Outside Odds: Consider the Vegas Raiders at Their Current Odds

“Las Vegas Raiders” | “Yes” at 0.8¢ | 1% Chance

Traders are sleeping on the Raiders, who went 3-14 in the AFC and averaged just 14.2 PPG throughout last season. The team is also enduring a transitional offseason, so their “Yes” share price in the NFL winner market has slumped to just 0.8¢.

This seems artificially low, however, especially when you consider that many of the Raiders’ offseason changes have been positive. 

For example, number one Draft pick Fernando Mendoza has instantly added depth to the QB position behind Kirk Cousins. What’s more, the franchise has appointed the aforementioned Klint Kubiak as head coach, with the former offensive coordinator renowned for his highly efficient running scheme and adaptability.

This will benefit Cousins, Mendoza and rookie running back Ashton Jeanty, ensuring that the Raiders have a far better offense in 2026/27. The team already boasts an elite and highly disruptive defensive unit, which is anchored by Maxx Crosby and Christian Wilkins.

Although I don’t think the Raiders will win Super Bowl LXI, buying “Yes” shares at a starting price 0.8¢ offers potential value. Just a few impressive early season wins could easily inflate this price to 4¢, creating an exit window and potential ROI of around 400%. Your precise return may vary depending on liquidity levels and the associated bid-ask slippage.

The Last Word on NFL Championship Odds

Both the Ravens and the Chiefs may also offer value at 7¢ and 6.5¢, respectively. However, the Ravens have lost several key members of their roster to free agency during the offseason, while Kansas have an aging group that includes influential 36-year-old and tight end Travis Kelce.

The Dallas Cowboys have also attracted over $1 million in trades and are currently priced at 5¢. However, they went 7-9-1 in the NFC last season and missed the playoffs, while they’ll have seven new starters and remain an unknown quantity.

How you trade this market will depend on your risk outlook. For example, the NFL boasts a huge field and is highly competitive, so teams rarely see their win probability exceed 15%-20% during the regular season. 

So, if you want to buy then sell your positions profitably, you’ll ideally need to identify undervalued outcomes that are priced lower than 10¢. It’s also important to set a clear exit strategy and track price fluctuations on a daily basis.

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