NFL Champion Odds: Prediction Markets for Super Bowl LXI

The NFL regular season got underway with a bang on the opening weekend. A staggering 791 points were scored across 16 matches, at a rate of 49.4 per game. Sunday’s 13 encounters alone combined for 693 points, with an average of 53.3 PPG the highest ever recorded on a Week 1 Sunday.

Defences were on top during the second week, however. The LA Rams conceded just six points as they thumped the Giants at home, recovering from their opening day defeat to the 49ers. San Francisco, the Bills, and the Chiefs all maintained their 100% win records during the second round of fixtures, while the Seahawks have shipped just 17 points across their two matches.

The Rams remain the favorites to triumph in Super Bowl LXI on Polymarket, with a revised win probability of 13%. The Bills’ own odds have inched higher to 12% after Week 2, while the 49ers have seen their win probability more than double to 8% since the beginning of the campaign.

Polymarket traders have already bought shares worth over $59.1 million on the winner of the next Super Bowl. This number has increased sharply since the opening weekend. But who are now the best value picks in this market? Here’s my analysis of your available options.

Note: Our exclusive Polymarket promo code (CORG) will get you $20 after you sign up and deposit $10. Looking for other options? Here’s our list of the best sports prediction markets.

Appraising Value in the Rams: What Do the Odds Say?

“Los Angeles Rams” | “Yes” at 13¢ | 13% Chance

When the prediction market opened on February 9th, the Rams had an 8% probability of winning the 2027 Super Bowl. The addition of star defensive end Myles Garrett saw this figure more than double, with the 30-year-old having registered a record 23.0 sacks during the 2025/26 campaign and earned a seventh Pro Bowl selection. 

It should also be noted that the Rams came within four points of reaching the Super Bowl last year and won 12 regular-season games. The franchise also averaged a league-high 30.0 PPG. 

The return of veteran league MVP Matthew Stafford and wide receiver Davante Adams also highlights the franchise’s desire to win now, rather than look too far into the future. However, relying on an aging thrower-receiver pair introduces risk, especially given the highly demanding and competitive nature of the NFL West Division.

This was potentially borne out during the opening day defeat against the 49ers. Stafford was withdrawn during the fourth quarter, fuelling speculation that he may have picked up a knock. However, Stafford returned against the Giants and threw an impressive 327 yards (and four touchdowns) in a 28-6 win.

The Rams now have a 13% chance of winning Super Bowl LXI, which is almost certainly higher than their true probability of prevailing this season. A corresponding price of 13¢ is also slightly elevated given their opening day performance, while it offers minimal upside during the regular season.

Trading “No” at 88¢ offers a maximum potential return of just 13.64%, too, so it’s better to pursue alternative outcomes early in the regular season.

The Value Pick: Why the Bills Odds Have a Significant Upside

“Buffalo Bills” | “Yes” at 12¢ | 12% Chance

The offseason saw significant upheaval for the Bills, who parted ways with longtime head coach Sean McDermott and replaced him with offensive coordinator Joe Brady.

Brady is revered as the passing coordinator who inspired LSU’s record-breaking college football season in 2019. The Tigers went 15-0 and won the National Championship, while scoring an incredible 723 points at an average of 48.4 PPG. 

However, while Brady’s switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defensive base will take time to implement successfully, it also hints at a more aggressive approach that will maximize the talent of quarterback Josh Allen while he is in his prime.

Both Allen and the Bills certainly looked good offensively in their 36-31 victory at the imposing Houston Texans. The quarterback starred and won at the NRG Stadium for the first time, throwing 334 yards and completing 20 of his 29 passes. He also threw two touchdowns, including one for summer trade DJ Moore.

The Bills are now 2-0 in 2026, while they’re currently averaging a season-high 38.5 PPG. However, they’re also looking vulnerable defensively, allowing an average of 368 defensive yards per game.

Still, the Bills have excellent roster depth and remain slightly underpriced at 12¢. Their price has already increased from 6.5¢ on June 24th, while it has the potential to range between 15% and 20% as the season progresses. So, there may be value in buying “Yes” shares on the Bills now and selling later in the regular season. Or, you can also hold your position into the playoffs.

The Defending Champions: How are the Seahawks Faring in the NFL Prediction Markets?

“Seattle Seahawks” | “Yes” at 9¢ | 9% Chance

There’s an historical bias against the Seahawks, who won the Super Bowl so impressively back in February. Just eight franchises have won back-to-back championships since the Super Bowl’s inception, while the Patriots and the Chiefs are the only teams to achieve this since the turn of the century.

The Seahawks success was built on an incredible defensive structure, which was organized by head coach Mike Macdonald. The franchise conceded a paltry 16.9 PPG throughout last season, while they shut out the Patriots for the first three quarters of the 2026 Super Bowl.

This trend has continued so far in 2026. They successfully shutout New England in the final quarter of their season opener, before conceding just seven points in an impressive road win at the Cardinals. The franchise has conceded an average of just 8.5 points-per-game so far this season.

Seattle also focused on improving their offense ahead of the new campaign, having hired Brian Fleury from the 49ers. He favors a scheme-heavy attack, which will reduce the team’s reliance on wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba and compensate for the departure of Kenneth Walker.

These efforts began to bear fruit during the 31-7 win over the Cardinals. Smith-Njigba starred at the State Farm Stadium, while he has posted 277 receiving yards and four touchdowns so far in 2026. However, the loss of influential offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak may still haunt the Seahawks, while starting quarterback Sam Darnold was also injured in the season opener against the Patriots.

Regardless, there’s value in buying “Yes” shares at a slightly discounted price of 9¢. You can then look to secure an exit once this increases to 14¢-15¢ during the regular season. The price has already risen by 28.57% since the beginning of the campaign.

The Best Outside Odds: Consider the Vegas Raiders at Their Current Odds

“Las Vegas Raiders” | “Yes” at 0.9¢ | 1% Chance

Traders are sleeping on the Raiders, who went 3-14 in the AFC and averaged just 14.2 PPG throughout last season. The team also endured a transitional offseason, after which their “Yes” share price in the NFL winner market had slumped to just 0.4¢.

This seemed artificially low, however, especially when you consider that many of the Raiders’ offseason changes had been positive. 

For example, number one Draft pick Fernando Mendoza has instantly added depth to the QB position behind Kirk Cousins. What’s more, the franchise has appointed the aforementioned Klint Kubiak as head coach, with the former offensive coordinator renowned for his highly efficient running scheme and adaptability.

This will benefit Cousins, Mendoza, and rookie running back Ashton Jeanty, ensuring that the Raiders have a far better offense in 2026/27. The team also has an elite and highly disruptive defensive unit, with 5x Pro Bowl pick Maxx Crosby anchoring this superbly.

The team impressed during their 27-13 opening week win against Miami, in which both Jeanty and Cousins starred. The former rushed 102 yards on 23 carries, while adding six receptions and two touchdowns. Cousins orchestrated the offense, too, completing 21 of his 30 attempted passes and throwing 160 yards in total. The Raiders subsequently won on the road at the Chargers to go 2-0.

This stellar start has already sent the Raiders’ price soaring by 125% from 0.4¢ to 0.9¢. A sustained run of good form could easily see it increase to around 4¢, creating an exit window and potential ROI above 400%. Just note that your precise return may vary depending on liquidity levels and the associated bid-ask slippage.

The Last Word on NFL Championship Odds

Both the Ravens and the Chiefs may also offer value at 6.1¢ and 7.7¢, respectively. However, the Ravens lost at home to the Saints last weekend, with their “Yes” price slumping by 30.68% in just seven days. Baltimore also lost several key players to free agency in the offseason.

The Chiefs have started well in 2026 and have a 100% record after two matches, but they’ll need to regain the trust of traders after a poor 2025 campaign.

The Dallas Cowboys have also attracted over $1.5 million in trades and are currently priced at 3.7¢. However, they went 7-9-1 in the NFC last season and missed the playoffs, while they remain an unknown quantity after a chaotic offseason. The franchise lost by eight points to the Giants at the MetLife Stadium during the opening weekend.

Ultimately, how you trade this market will depend on your risk outlook. For example, the NFL boasts a huge field and is highly competitive, so teams rarely see their win probability exceed 15%-20% during the regular season. 

So, if you want to buy then sell your positions profitably prior to the playoffs, you’ll ideally need to identify undervalued outcomes that are currently priced lower than or around 10¢. It’s also important to set a clear exit strategy and track price fluctuations on a daily basis.

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