NFL Champion Odds: Prediction Markets for Super Bowl LXI

This weekend saw a heavyweight showdown in the NFL, with the Bills producing a thrilling overtime victory on the road at the Rams. These two franchises started the campaign as the favorites to win Super Bowl LXI, but Buffalo prevailed 37-34 and are currently averaging 32.8 points-per-game (PPG) so far in 2026.

The 49ers and the Vikings are the only teams to go 5-0 during the first five rounds of fixtures. The Chiefs also retain a 100% record in 2026, although they’ve contested just four games after receiving a bye during week five.

Interestingly, the 49ers are now among the favorites to win Super Bowl LXI on Polymarket, with a revised win probability of 11%. The Bills have dropped back to 12% as they continue to struggle defensively, but their current “Yes” price of 12¢ arguably offers superior value to traders.

Polymarket traders have now bought shares worth over $65.4 million on the winner of the next Super Bowl. This number has increased sharply since the opening weekend. But who are now the best value picks in this market? Here’s my analysis of your available options.

Note: Our exclusive Polymarket promo code (CORG) will get you $20 after you sign up and deposit $10. Looking for other options? Here’s our list of the best sports prediction markets.

Appraising Value in the Rams: What Do the Odds Say?

“Los Angeles Rams” | “Yes” at 11¢ | 11% Chance

When the prediction market opened on February 9th, the Rams had an 8% probability of winning the 2027 Super Bowl. The addition of star defensive end Myles Garrett saw this figure more than double, with the 30-year-old having registered a record 23.0 sacks during the 2025/26 campaign and earned a seventh Pro Bowl selection. 

It should also be noted that the Rams came within four points of reaching the Super Bowl last year and won 12 regular-season games. The franchise averaged a league-high 30.0 PPG, too. 

The return of veteran league MVP Matthew Stafford and wide receiver Davante Adams also highlights the franchise’s desire to win now, rather than look too far into the future. However, relying on an aging thrower-receiver pair introduces risk, especially given the highly demanding and competitive nature of the NFL West Division.

This was potentially borne out during the opening day defeat against the 49ers. Stafford was withdrawn during the fourth quarter, fuelling speculation that he may have picked up a knock.

Stafford returned against the Giants and threw an impressive 327 yards (and four touchdowns) in a 28-6 win. He also starred in a hard-fought triumph in Philadelphia on October 4th, throwing another 317 yards and completing two crucial interceptions. After losing to the Bills, however, the franchise has gone 2-3 (.400) so far and lacks any kind of consistency.

The Rams now have an 11% chance of winning Super Bowl LXI, which is still slightly higher than their true probability of prevailing this season. A corresponding price of 11¢ is also slightly elevated given their inconsistent form and occasionally vulnerable defence, while it offers minimal upside during the regular season.

Trading “No” at 88.9¢ offers a maximum potential return of just 12.49%, too, so it’s better to pursue alternative outcomes here.

The Value Pick: Why the Bills Odds Have a Significant Upside

“Buffalo Bills” | “Yes” at 12¢ | 12% Chance

The offseason saw significant upheaval for the Bills, who parted ways with longtime head coach Sean McDermott and replaced him with offensive coordinator Joe Brady.

Brady is revered as the passing coordinator who inspired LSU’s record-breaking college football season in 2019. The Tigers went 15-0 and won the National Championship, while scoring an incredible 723 points at an average of 48.4 PPG. 

However, while Brady’s switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defensive base will take time to implement successfully, it also hints at a more aggressive approach that will maximize the talent of quarterback Josh Allen while he is in his prime.

Both Allen and the Bills have certainly excelled offensively so far. The quarterback has thrown a total of 1,249 yards and seven touchdowns, while averaging 9.1 yards per passing attempt (he ranks third for this metric). As we’ve touched on, Buffalo averages 32.8 PPG across their five matches and 36.5 on the road.

Concerns about the Bills defensive vulnerability are proving well-justified, however. Only four franchises have conceded more PPG in the 2026 campaign, while the Bills are allowing an average of 388.60 defensive yards per game. However, I expect Buffalo to improve the defensive aspect of their game as the season progresses.

If you bought “Yes” shares in the Bills at 6.5¢ on June 24th, you could sell now and unlock an ROI of 84.62%. Although the price also has the potential to range between 15¢ and 20¢ as the regular season progresses, I wouldn’t buy at the current benchmark of 12¢ unless you intend to hold into the playoffs.

The Defending Champions: How are the Seahawks Faring in the NFL Prediction Markets?

“Seattle Seahawks” | “Yes” at 8¢ | 8% Chance

There’s an historical bias against the Seahawks, who won the Super Bowl so impressively back in February. Just eight franchises have won back-to-back championships since the Super Bowl’s inception, while the Patriots and the Chiefs are the only teams to achieve this since the turn of the century.

The Seahawks success was built on an incredible defensive structure, which was organized by head coach Mike Macdonald. The franchise conceded a paltry 16.9 PPG throughout last season, while they shut out the Patriots for the first three quarters of the 2026 Super Bowl.

This trend has largely continued so far in 2026. They successfully shutout New England in the final quarter of their season opener, before conceding just seven points in an impressive road win at the Cardinals. Overall, the franchise has conceded an average of 21.0 points-per-game during the first five weekends.

Interestingly, the side has shipped 88 points at an average of 29.3 PPG in their last three matches. However, they’ve faced an average of just 251.2 defensive yards per game in 2026, with most of their recent issues focused on high turnover rates.

Seattle also focused on improving their offense ahead of the new campaign, having hired Brian Fleury from the 49ers. He favors a scheme-heavy attack, which has reduced the team’s reliance on wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba and helped compensate for the departure of Kenneth Walker. This has begun to bear fruit in the last four games, during which Seattle have plundered 121 points at an average of 30.25 PPG.

Overall, there’s value in buying “Yes” shares at a slightly discounted price of 8¢. You can then look to secure an exit once this increases to 14¢-15¢ during the regular season. The price has risen nominally by 14.29% since the beginning of the campaign.

The Best Outside Odds: Consider the Vegas Raiders at Their Current Odds

“Las Vegas Raiders” | “Yes” at 0.7¢ | 1% Chance

Traders spent all summer sleeping on the Raiders, who went 3-14 in the AFC and averaged just 14.2 PPG throughout last season. The team also endured a transitional offseason, after which their “Yes” share price in the NFL winner market had slumped to just 0.4¢.

This seemed artificially low, however, especially when you consider that many of the Raiders’ offseason changes had been positive. 

For example, number one Draft pick Fernando Mendoza has instantly added depth to the QB position behind Kirk Cousins. What’s more, the franchise has appointed the aforementioned Klint Kubiak as head coach, with the former offensive coordinator renowned for his highly efficient running scheme.

The team certainly impressed during their 27-13 opening week win against Miami, in which both Jeanty and Cousins starred.

The Raiders subsequently won on the road at the Chargers and the Saints to go 3-0, before being edged out at home by the Chiefs in week four. However, Las Vegas were thrashed on the road by the Patriots at the weekend, halving the franchise’s “Yes” price to just 0.6¢. They’ll host the Bills and the Rams in October, too, before travelling to take on the 49ers on November 8th.

If you bought in at the rock-bottom price of 0.4¢, a revised benchmark of 0.7¢ highlights a 75% increase. You can therefore look to hold your position into the winter, during which time the Raiders will face a more favorable strength of schedule. A sustained run of good form here could easily see the price increase to around 4¢, creating an exit window and potential ROI above 400%.

You can also look to buy-in now and hold until the end of the regular season at least. Just be mindful of low liquidity levels and the bid-ask slippage here.

The Last Word on NFL Championship Odds

The 49ers started the 2026/27 campaign priced at just 3.5¢. However, their five-game winning streak has sent the value of their “Yes” shares soaring to 11.8¢, creating a hike of 237.14% in barely a month. Quarterback Brock Purdy has starred for the unbeaten San Francisco, but the 49ers offer slightly less upside if you’re looking to buy-in now.

The aforementioned Chiefs have also started well in 2026 and seen their own “Yes” price surge by 160.53% since September 14th. The side is beginning to regain the trust of traders, too, after a poor 2025/26 campaign.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have also attracted over $1.9 million in trades and have gone 4-1 during the regular season so far. Their “Yes” price has already risen from 2.3¢ on September 4th to 7.4¢, while the franchise has recorded impressive home wins against the Browns and the Patriots. A strength of schedule score of 0.490 will also favor the Jaguars throughout 2026.

Ultimately, how you trade this market will depend on your risk outlook. For example, the NFL boasts a huge field and is highly competitive, so teams rarely see their win probability exceed 15%-20% during the regular season. 

So, if you want to buy then sell your positions profitably prior to the playoffs, you’ll ideally need to identify undervalued outcomes that are currently priced lower than or around 10¢. It’s also important to set a clear exit strategy and track price fluctuations on a daily basis.

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