Seaport: Diller Could Make Another Run at Casino Giant MGM

The saga that is the MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM)/People Inc. (NASDAQ: PPLI) takeover situation may be far from over as one analyst is speculating that Barry Diller’s media company could make another run at the casino operator.

In a report out late Thursday, Seaport Research Partners analyst Vitaly Umansky noted that although People pulled its $48.30 per share acquisition offer for MGM on Wednesday, Diller is still “very optimistic” about the gaming company’s future.

The analyst added that he expects Diller’s company, which already owns approximately 27% of MGM shares, will continue adding to its stake in the Borgata operator.

More Moving Parts Than Ever

People made its initial bid for MGM on June 1, offering $48.30 a share, valuing the target at $18 billion. Wall Street viewed the offer as low, but it’s widely believed snags in a potential deal were created by financing complexities, not indictments of MGM’s underlying fundamentals.

Fast-forward to today and there are other complexities, not the least of which is fresh speculation that MGM may be mulling a takeover of People in an effort to acquire the 27% of its equity held by the media conglomerate.

Neither company has publicly commented on that speculation, but shares of People are reacting to the rumor as that stock is higher by more than 10% on heavy volume in midday trading. The notion of MGM potentially buying People raised questions regarding what the casino company would do with People’s various media holdings or if it even wants those assets.

Another element to consider is that MGM appears content to remain a standalone public company, according to a Wednesday statement from Chairman Paul Salem.

MGM Stock Trades at ‘Striking Discount’

In the months following Diller’s original bid, there was talk of another suitor emerging for MGM. That didn’t happen, but one form of clarity may be the consensus that $48.30 a share doesn’t adequately value MGM. The company itself believes public markets aren’t properly valuing it.

Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon notes that when stripping out MGM’s 56% interest in MGM China and its 50% stake in BetMGM, the shares trade at just 3.7x 2026 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA), representing “a striking discount for a company with premier Las Vegas Strip assets and a best-in-class regional portfolio.”

While echoing the refrain that investors assign basically no value for the MGM Osaka project, Beynon points out that MGM trades at 4.7x estimated 2027 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, and restructuring or rent costs (EBITDAR), implying a discount to rivals such as Boyd Gaming (NYSE: BYD), Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS), Penn Entertainment (NASDAQ: PENN) and Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN).