Are Prediction Markets Gambling? Harris Poll Finds Divided Public

• The public’s opinion on whether prediction markets offer gambling is mixed
• About half of those recently polled think trading on a prediction market is similar to gambling
• The National Council on Problem Gambling commissioned The Harris Poll on prediction markets

As prediction markets surge in popularity across the gaming and financial sectors, new polling reveals the American public is sharply divided on whether these online exchanges constitute gambling or financial investing.

Commissioned by the National Council on Problem Gambling (NCPG), The Harris Poll surveyed more than 2,000 US adults to gauge their opinions on prediction markets.

“These findings show that the public recognizes prediction markets as platforms that can carry many of the same risks associated with gambling,” said Heather Maurer, executive director at the NCPG.

Since 1972, the NCPG has been the only national nonprofit dedicated to minimizing the personal, social, and economic costs of problem gambling. The organization is based in Washington, DC.

Consumer Protections Needed

The Harris Poll found that Americans strongly support prediction markets being required to implement consumer safeguards similar to those forced on online gambling products. The survey reported that 84% support treating prediction markets like an online sportsbook when it comes to consumer protections.  

“Regardless of how these products are classified legally, Americans clearly believe that if financial risk and repeated participation are involved, meaningful consumer protections should follow,” Maurer said.

As these platforms continue to expand, there is a growing need for public awareness, education, and access to support resources,” Maurer added. “As retail participation in financial markets continues to evolve, NCPG is committed to ensuring consumer education and harm prevention efforts evolve alongside them.”

The NCPG is advocating for research into a better understanding of the emerging risks of prediction markets in terms of trading addiction, initiatives to strengthen consumer education, and to engage platforms to become compliant with the nonprofit’s Responsible Play program. 

Poll: Odds Good for Prediction Market Addiction

Another key finding of The Harris Poll on prediction markets is that a strong majority of those surveyed felt that trading on the exchanges comes with an abundance of addiction risk.

Approximately 82% of those polled said they would support prediction markets being required to offer “responsible gaming or consumer protection tools” like deposit limits, cooling-off periods, and accessible help for gambling problems.