2026 US Open Odds – Who Will Win at Flushing Meadows

The 2026 US Open will conclude this weekend, with the Men’s and Women’s Singles finals at Flushing Meadows.

Home favorite and world number nine Ben Shelton will take on top seed Alexander Zverev in the Men’s final. The top two seeds will contest the Women’s Singles final, as Elena Rybakina plays defending champion Aryna Sabalenka in a repeat of the 2026 Australian Open final.

Prediction market platform Polymarket continues to offer speculative markets on both the Men’s and Women’s Singles outcomes. Over $36.2 million has been traded cumulatively so far.

But who are the best value picks as we approach the business end of the tournament? Here’s my take on the latest US Open odds and price movements.

Note: Our exclusive Polymarket promo code (CORG) will get you $20 after you sign up and deposit $10. Looking for other markets? Here’s a list of the best sports prediction markets.

Men’s Singles Odds – A First-Time US Open Champion Will be Crowned

The Men’s Singles tournament has been in a state of turmoil since it began. First, Carlos Alcaraz announced his long-awaited return at Flushing Meadows following a four-month injury hiatus. This was quickly followed by world No. 1 Jannik Sinner confirming his withdrawal due to a persistent knee injury.

Then, four-time winner Novak Djokovic was eliminated by Mariano Navone in the first round following a five-set thriller. The Serbian was emotional during the loss, which once again saw him experience significant health issues.

Just two top 10 seeds remained after the quarterfinals, during which Alcaraz was defeated in five sets by Shelton. The American has since reached his maiden Grand Slam final in New York, while Zverev is looking to win a second major and his first US Open crown.

The German is the narrow favorite to prevail in New York, with a revised win probability of 58%. American number one Shelton now has a 42% chance of triumphing, up from just 1.7% on August 7th.

Alexander Zverev Odds – The Deserved US Open Men’s Favorite

“Alexander Zverev” | “Yes” at 58.3¢ | 58% Chance

Zverev has already enjoyed a breakthrough 2026 campaign. The 29-year-old captured his maiden Grand Slam title at Roland Garros before reaching the Wimbledon final, benefiting from Carlos Alcaraz’s extended hiatus while cementing his place as one of the ATP Tour’s most consistent forces.

Zverev now holds a 34-10 (77.2%) career record at the US Open, where he reached the final in 2020 before falling in five sets to Dominic Thiem. While his overall career hard-court win rate sits lower at 65.9%, that figure has surged well above 73% during the 2026 season.

He has recorded four successive straight set wins to reach the final, after two initial five-setters against Lorenzo Sonego and Quentin Halys, respectively. So, he has improved as the tournament has progressed.

I recommended that you buy “Yes” shares in the 29-year-old German at 21¢, after his struggles against Halys in the second round drove down his price. This has more than doubled to 58.3¢ ahead of the showpiece final, delivering a 177.62% increase in just 10 days.

However, both the seeding and head-to-head data favors Zverev, who has a 5-0 record against Shelton on the ATP Tour. Three of these wins have been achieved on hard courts, too, although the pair have yet to meet in Grand Slam encounter.

So, I recommend that you hold your Zverev “Yes” shares until settlement. Zverev is also the value play if you’re buying “Yes” now, but this will be a straight bet on him winning the final. You could also consider selling a percentage of your shares and retaining a smaller position in the German. This will guarantee a small profit or at least help you recoup your initial stake.

Ben Shelton Odds – The Home Favorite Who Dethroned the Defending Champion

“Ben Shelton” | “Yes” at 42.5¢ | 42% Chance

American number one Ben Shelton continues to receive heavy backing from Polymarket traders. His “Yes” price was a nominal 1.7¢ on August 7th, while it previously peaked at 7.6¢ on September 4th.

The price failed to break out above this range during the opening rounds of the tournament, with Shelton occupying the same quarter of the draw as the returning Alcaraz. However, the eighth seed’s epic five-set win over the Spaniard in the quarters smashed this ceiling and established Shelton as the second favorite.

Shelton was already one of the form players on the ATP Tour, winning four titles across three different surfaces so far in 2026. This haul includes the Canadian Open Masters title (which Shelton also won in 2025) and his maiden European clay court trophy in Munich.

Shelton’s potent serve and powerful forehand is tailor-made for hard courts, while he has now gone 15-4 and won 78.9% of his career matches at Flushing Meadows.

If you bought “Yes” shares in Shelton at just 1.7¢, you could sell your position now for an incredible ROI of 2,400%%. Even if you followed my recommendation and bought in at 7.6¢, selling at 42.5¢ would yield a profit of 459.21%. This is the best move, especially given the size of your potential profit and Shelton’s status as the underdog.

Women’s Single Odds – Exploring a More Open Prediction Market

Unlike the Men’s singles, the top four female seeds all reached the semi-finals at Flushing Meadows. This hasn’t happened on the women’s side of the draw in New York since 1975.

Two-time US Open champion Sabalenka won the first semi-final, defeating third seed Jessica Pegula in straight sets. Elena Rybakina then overcame home favorite Coco Gauff in a high-quality match, becoming world number one in the process.

Sabalenka remains the favorite on Polymarket, despite a challenging 2026 so far. She lost to Rybakina in the Australian Open final back in January, and failed to progress beyond the quarterfinals at either the French Open or Wimbledon.

But does the Belarusian remain the value pick ahead of the final? Or will Rybakina win her first ever US Open title this weekend?

Aryna Sabalenka Odds – A Hard Court Powerhouse and the Queen of New York

“Aryna Sabalenka” | “Yes” at 58¢ | 57% Chance

While Aryna Sabalenka has occasionally struggled for consistency in recent months, she remains a dominant force on hard courts. All four of her career Grand Slam titles have come on the surface, including back-to-back crowns at Flushing Meadows.

Sabalenka hasn’t suffered a defeat in New York since the 2023 final, where she was edged out in three sets by the aforementioned Coco Gauff (2-6, 6-3, 6-2). She has now won 20 consecutive matches at the US Open (including one walkover), and the 28-year-old is well-positioned to emulate Serena Williams and Chris Evert by capturing a third straight title at Flushing Meadows in the Open Era.

Sabalenka boasts an overall tournament record of 40-6 (86.9%) in New York, alongside a formidable win rate well above 90.0% on hard courts across the 2026 season.

At 25¢ on September 4th, Sabalenka’s “Yes” shares were clearly undervalued. Traders were overreacting to her perceived dip in form—including a fourth-round exit at Wimbledon—while discounting her underlying hard-court dominance. If you bought in at this price, you’ll have seen it increase by 132% to 58¢, so you may be tempted to sell and lock in a profit.

This is highly recommended, as Rybakina’s true win probability in the final is a little higher than the US Open odds imply. Alternatively, you could sell a percentage of your shares in order to bank a small profit, and leave the remainder riding on a Sabalenka victory.

Elena Rybakina Odds – The 2026 Australian Open Winner and World Number One

“Elena Rybakina” | “Yes” at 41.9¢ | 41% Chance

Second seed Elena Rybakina has powered through the Women’s Singles draw so far, dropping just two sets en route to the final. This is despite an underwhelming career record at Flushing Meadows, which has seen Rybakina go 8-6 and win just 57.1% of her matches prior to 2026.

Of course, it’s no surprise that Rybakina has finally reached the US Open final for the first time. She won her first Grand Slam on hard courts at the Australian Open at the beginning of the year, defeating Iga Świątek, Pegula, and top seed Sabalenka in the process.

Overall, Rybakina has now won over 83% of her hard court matches in 2026 (and 85% during the previous 12 months). This represents a significant improvement on her career hard court win-rate of just 70%, with the 27-year-old demonstrating a far more accurate and effective service game this year.

She leads the WTA for the number of aces struck in 2026 (357). The Kazakhstani has also won 73.4% of all points on her first serve, which is the highest percentage of any player to compete in more than 30 matches on the tour.

I recommended that you snap up “Yes” shares in Rybakina prior to the semi-final, at the slightly discounted price of 19¢. This has since increased to 41.9¢, delivering a potential ROI of 120.53% in barely 48 hours. The smart move here is to sell your position before the final showpiece, unless you firmly believe that Rybakina will prevail.

The Last Word: Executing Your US Open Trades

Prediction markets for Grand Slam futures offer substantial value given the breadth of contract options and realistic contenders across both draws. This rule even applies as we approach the final.

The depth and competitiveness of these fields kept average “Yes” prices relatively low during early trading. This dynamic allows traders to secure discounted positions and lock in profits as candidates advance through the bracket. This is evident through the exponential price rises showcased by Shelton and Zverev in the Men’s draw.

Each of the four US Open finalists has held a “Yes” price of 25¢ or lower at some point prior to or during the tournament. So, there may now be the opportunity to sell some or all of your shares, liquidity permitting.

Success ultimately hinges on tracking open positions and establishing clear exit strategies for each trade. These decisions should account for on-court form, draw paths, and target profit margins.

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