2026 US Open Odds – Who Will Win at Flushing Meadows

The 2026 US Open odds have changed markedly during the tournament’s second week. 2022 winner Iga Świątek was upset by Zheng Qinwen in the Women’s round of 16, before defending Men’s champion Carlos Alcaraz exited at the quarterfinal stage.

Alcaraz was making his first tournament appearance in over four months following a wrist injury, but lost to home favorite Ben Shelton in a thrilling, five-set quarterfinal. This has blown the Men’s draw wide open, while defending Women’s champion Aryna Sabalenka is still in contention in 2026 and the favorite to retain her title at Flushing Meadows.

Prediction market platform Polymarket continues to offer speculative markets on both the Men’s and Women’s Singles draws. Over $33.6 million has been traded cumulatively so far.

But who are the best value picks as we approach the business end of the tournament? Here’s my take on the latest US Open odds and price movements.

Note: Our exclusive Polymarket promo code (CORG) will get you $20 after you sign up and deposit $10. Looking for other markets? Here’s a list of the best sports prediction markets.

Men’s Singles Odds – Exploring a Wide-Open Draw

The Men’s Singles tournament has been in a state of turmoil since it began. First, Carlos Alcaraz announced his long-awaited return at Flushing Meadows following a four-month injury hiatus, which was quickly followed by world No. 1 Jannik Sinner confirming his withdrawal due to a persistent knee injury.

Then, four-time winner Novak Djokovic was eliminated by Mariano Navone in the first round following a five-set thriller. The Serbian was emotional during the loss, which once again saw him experience significant health issues. Just two top 10 seeds now remain with the quarterfinals yet to be completed, following the surprise elimination of Alcaraz.

This sequence has triggered immense volatility across prediction markets, where Sinner had previously commanded a 36% win probability ahead of the field.

Zverev is now the clear favorite to prevail in New York, with a revised win probability of 45.0%. American number one Shelton now has a 36.0% chance of winning his maiden Grand Slam, up from just 1.7% on August 7th.

Alexander Zverev Odds – The New US Open Men’s Favorite

“Alexander Zverev” | “Yes” at 45.5¢ | 45% Chance

Zverev has already enjoyed a breakthrough 2026 campaign. The 29-year-old captured his maiden Grand Slam title at Roland Garros before reaching the Wimbledon final, benefiting from Carlos Alcaraz’s extended hiatus while cementing his place as one of the ATP Tour’s most consistent forces.

Zverev now holds a 32-10 (76.1%) career record at the US Open, where he reached the final in 2020 before falling in five sets to Dominic Thiem. While his overall career hard-court win rate sits lower at 65.9%, that figure has surged above 73% during the 2026 season.

He has recorded successive straight set wins to set up a last eight clash with the unseeded Botic van de Zandschulp, after two initial five-setters against Lorenzo Sonego and Quentin Halys respectively.

Beyond his current form, Zverev has reached the semifinals or better at all three Grand Slams in 2026. Having advanced to the quarterfinals in nine of his past 12 majors since Wimbledon 2023, he represents a remarkably dependable pick in the Men’s singles at Flushing Meadows.

I recommended that you buy “Yes” shares in the 29-year-old German at 21¢, after his struggles against Halys drove down his price. This has more than doubled to 45.5¢ after the elimination of Alcaraz, delivering a 116.67% increase in less than a week.

However, the Men’s draw has afforded Zverev a relatively favorable path to the final, so I’d encourage you to hold your position until after the semi-final at least. His price could peak between 65¢ and 80¢ at this time (depending on his opponent), creating a potential ROI of up to 280.95% if you bought in at just 21¢.

Ben Shelton Odds – The Home Favorite Who Dethroned the Defending Champion

“Ben Shelton” | “Yes” at 35.9¢ | 36% Chance

American number one Ben Shelton continues to receive heavy backing from Polymarket traders. His “Yes” price was a nominal 1.7¢ on August 7th, while it previously peaked at 7.6¢ on September 4th.

The price failed to break out above this range during the opening rounds of the tournament, with Shelton occupying the same quarter of the draw as the returning Alcaraz. However, the world number eight’s epic five-set win over the Spaniard in the quarters has smashed this ceiling and established Shelton as the second favorite.

Shelton was already one of the form players on the ATP Tour, winning four titles across three different surfaces so far in 2026. This haul includes the Canadian Open Masters title (which Shelton also won in 2025) and his maiden European clay court trophy in Munich.

Shelton’s potent serve and powerful forehand is tailor-made for hard courts, while he has now gone 14-4 and won 77.7% of his career matches at Flushing Meadows. He’ll face American rival and 11th seed Frances Tiafoe in the last four, and is the narrow favorite to reach his maiden Grand Slam final.

If you bought “Yes” shares in Shelton at just 1.7¢, you could sell your position now for an incredible ROI of 2,011.76%. Even if you followed my recommendation and bought in at 7.6¢, selling at 35.9¢ would yield a profit of 372.37%. You could also hold until after the semi-final, at which point Shelton’s price may touch the 45¢ – 50¢ range.

Women’s Single Odds – Exploring a More Open Prediction Market

This market has narrowed since January, when Sabalenka was afforded a 51% chance of winning in New York after reaching the final of the 2026 Australian Open.

She failed to progress beyond the quarterfinals at either the French Open or Wimbledon, however, while Sabalenka has only claimed one Grand Slam title since September 2024. 

In fact, the last seven Women’s Singles Slams have each produced a different winner, including Iga Świątek, Coco Gauff, and Mirra Andreeva.

This has created a far more open market overall, so let’s take a closer look at the best value picks!

Aryna Sabalenka Odds – A Hard Court Powerhouse and the Clear Women’s Favorite

“Aryna Sabalenka” | “Yes” at 38¢ | 38% Chance

While Aryna Sabalenka has occasionally struggled for consistency in recent months, she remains a dominant force on hard courts. All four of her career Grand Slam titles have come on the surface, including back-to-back crowns at Flushing Meadows.

Sabalenka hasn’t suffered a defeat in New York since the 2023 final, where she was edged out in three sets by home favorite Coco Gauff (2-6, 6-3, 6-2). Having now won 19 consecutive matches at the US Open (including one walkover), the 28-year-old is well-positioned to emulate Serena Williams and Chris Evert by capturing a third straight title at Flushing Meadows in the Open Era.

Sabalenka boasts an overall tournament record of 39-6 (86.6%) in New York, alongside a formidable win rate above 90.0% on hard courts across the 2026 season.

At 25¢ on September 4th, Sabalenka’s “Yes” shares were clearly undervalued. Traders were overreacting to her perceived dip in form—including a fourth-round exit at Wimbledon—while discounting her underlying hard-court dominance. If you bought in at this price, you’ll have seen it increase by 52.00% to 38¢, and you can choose to cash in ahead of Sabalenka’s semi-final clash against Jessica Pegula.

I’d recommending holding until after the last four, however, at which point Sabalenka’s price could break out between 62¢ and 80¢.

Elena Rybakina Odds – The 2026 Australian Open Winner Who Has Yet to Drop a Set

“Elena Rybakina” | “Yes” at 19¢ | 18% Chance

Second seed Elena Rybakina has powered through the Women’s Singles draw so far, delivering an impressive fourth round victory over two-time champion Naomi Osaka along the way. This is despite an underwhelming career record at Flushing Meadows, which has seen Rybakina go 8-6 and win just 57.1% of her matches prior to 2026.

Of course, it’s no surprise that Rybakina has reached finally the US Open quarterfinals for the first time. She won her first Grand Slam on hard courts at the Australian Open at the beginning of the year, defeating Iga Świątek, Pegula, and top seed Sabalenka in the process.

Overall, Rybakina has now won 83.0% of her hard court matches in 2026 (and 85.0% during the previous 12 months). This represents a significant improvement on her career hard court win-rate of just 70.0%, with the 27-year-old demonstrating a far more accurate and effective service game this year.

She leads the WTA for the number of aces struck in 2026 (357). The Kazakhstani has also won 73.4% of all points on her first serve, which is the highest percentage of any player to compete in more than 30 matches on the tour.

An aggressive baseliner, Rybakina’s current price of just 19¢ offers exceptional value. This has been restricted by the presence of Coco Gauff and Mirra Andreeva in her half of the draw, but it could move into the 30¢ to 38¢ range if she overcomes Zheng in the quarterfinals. If she reaches the final, it could even peak above 45¢. So, consider snapping up “Yes” share now while they’re undervalued.

The Last Word: Executing Your US Open Trades

Prediction markets for Grand Slam futures offer substantial value given the breadth of contract options and realistic contenders across both draws. This rule even applies as we approach the semi-finals.

The depth and competitiveness of these fields kept average “Yes” prices relatively low during early trading. This dynamic allows traders to secure discounted positions and lock in profits as candidates advance through the bracket. This is evident through the exponential price rises showcased by Shelton and Zverev in the Men’s draw.

Success hinges on tracking open positions and establishing clear exit strategies for each trade. These decisions should account for on-court form, draw paths, and target profit margins. Executing with discipline will help maximize returns while avoiding low-liquidity traps as the field continues to narrow.

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