Chris Jonat’s most popular posts
Are Prediction Markets Accurate? What the Data Really Shows
How often do prediction markets hit the target? Key Takeaways Prediction markets have a solid overall track record. The Iowa Electronic Markets, one of the longest-running academic markets, beat the matching opinion poll on roughly three out of every four days researchers checked across five presidential...
September 3, 2026
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9 min read
How Prediction Markets Called the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, and What It Means for 2026
September 10, 2026
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5 min read
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