Smart Money on Kanye West Running for 2020 Presidency, But Odds Say No Chance He Wins
Posted on: July 16, 2020, 11:24h.
Last updated on: July 16, 2020, 12:23h.
Kanye West is moving forward with a bid to challenge President Donald Trump and presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden in November. But his odds of winning are long.
The Oklahoma Board of Elections confirmed yesterday that the 43-year-old has filed the necessary paperwork and paid the $35,000 associated fee to be included on the state’s November 3 presidential ballot. The Federal Election Commission (FEC) additionally says the rapper has formed a presidential committee called “Kanye 2020.” A FEC search also turned up “Committee to Elect Kanye West,” “Kanye for a Doper America,” “Ready for Kanye,” and “KanyePAC.”
West is running as a third-party candidate against Trump and Biden. In his statement of candidacy, he lists his party affiliation as “BDY,” which stands for “Birthday Party.”
The PredictIt market asking, “Will Kanye West run for president in 2020?” now has “Yes” shares trading at 90 cents. Just two days ago, those same shares were at 14 cents.
West fueled speculation that he would seek the presidency with a July 4 tweet that read, “We must now realize the promise of America by trusting God, unifying our vision, and building our future. I am running for president of the United States!”
Billionaire Elon Musk quickly tweeted his “full support.”
No Way, No Chance
Though political bettors are putting money on West actually going through with a presidential run, he currently has no realistic path to the White House.
Deadlines to file as a third-party candidate have already passed in Indiana, Maine, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, and Texas. Oklahoma, Florida, Michigan, and South Carolina had their filing deadline yesterday, but he filed in only the Sooner State.
Oklahoma has only seven Electoral College votes. A candidate must win 270 Electoral College votes to win the presidency.
West’s shares of winning in November are trading at just a penny. Biden is in the lead at 61 cents, Trump second at 41 cents, and VP Mike Pence and former First Lady Hillary Clinton at two cents.
UK bookmaker William Hill, which is permitted to take traditional bets on political outcomes, has Kanye at 150/1 to become the next commander in chief. That implies a chance of 0.66 percent.
A $5 bet on West, and the unthinkable occurring, would net $750. Sky Bet has West much shorter at 80/1 — implied chance of 1.23 percent — seemingly high for a candidate who currently can only theoretically win seven Electoral College votes.
Polls, Odds Favor Biden
Kanye West will no doubt generate plenty of media headlines regarding his 2020 aspirations. But pollsters and oddsmakers say Biden is the man to beat.
The Real Clear Politics national polling average in a Trump vs. Biden head-to-head has the Democratic candidate with a substantial 8.6-point advantage. UK books have Biden the frontrunner at 4/6 (-150), and Trump at 7/5 (+140).
Despite the data, Trump tweeted today that he’s looking “forward to having a big and very important second win” come November.
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