Siva: Prediction Markets Could Sap Tribal Casino Revenue

If prediction market expansion continues unfettered, casinos run by Native American tribes could shed as much as 25% of their gross revenue as soon as next year, according to James Siva.

Siva, the chairman of the California Nations Indian Gaming Association (CNIGA), made those comments earlier today at the Oklahoma Indian Gaming Association Conference, adding that initial estimates indicate tribal casino revenue could be pinched by 5% this year due to rapid expansion of prediction markets. He said the 25% sales attrition could be realized over the next year if all-or-nothing exchanges continue expanding.

Siva is vice chairman of the Morongo Band of Mission Indians, which operates a namesake casino resort in Cabazon, Calif. It’s one of the largest gaming venues in the state.

‘Wild West’ for Prediction Markets

If Siva’s projection is accurate, tribal casinos could lose a staggering sum at the hands of prediction markets. Earlier today, the National Indian Gaming Commission (NIGC) reported that Indian Country casinos posted $46.2 billion in sales in 2025. A quarter of that figure is $11.55 billion.

Whether Siva is engaging in hyperbole remains to be seen, but in May, the American Gaming Association (AGA) estimated prediction markets have already pilfered $1 billion in tax revenue that normally would have gone to states and tribal nations. That figure has since grown to $1.21 billion, according to the casino trade group.

Siva, whose criticisms of prediction markets are well-documented, expressed concern about the lack of regulations and tax clarity pertaining to these operators.

‘Most Dangerous Threat’

Prediction market grievances held by tribal casino operators are in part rooted in those entities typically holding exclusive compacts with the states in which they do business. The tribes view prediction markets as unapproved threats to those agreements.

Likewise, some of the largest tribal casino regions are states, such as California, where sports betting isn’t legal, or is competitively limited (Florida), but many yes/no exchanges are leveraging sports derivatives to encroach on gaming territory controlled by tribes without approval.

“This is the most important, dangerous threat we have ever seen to this industry,” Siva told attendees at the Oklahoma conference. “It has the fundamental ability to reshape and reform what gaming is in this country.”