New York City Casinos Seen Posting up to $5.6B in Annual Revenue

• Research firm says that’s the bull case scenario for the three licensees
• The bulk of that estimate is based on gaming revenue with some contributions from non-gaming sources
• The base case scenario is $4.7 billion in annual revenue

The three New York City casino concessionaires could generate as much as $5.6 billion in combined annual revenue as those properties come online in the years ahead.

That’s the bull case scenario posited by CBRE Institutional Research, which notes the ramping period for those venues probably won’t extend beyond three years due to existing competition in the area. That includes MGM Resorts International’s (NYSE: MGM) Empire City Casino in Yonkers, which did not move forward with a plan to pursue a traditional casino license.

The three New York City license holders are Genting, which operates Resorts World New York, Bally’s and Hard Rock International. CBRE believes it’s possible each of those venues could eventually be among the highest-grossing regional casinos in the US.

The Downstate New York market is significantly underpenetrated and there is a strong case for each of the three projects to be among the highest revenue-generating casinos across regional gaming,” according to the research firm.

CBRE estimates 70% of the casino hotels’ revenue would be derived from gaming. It’s base case scenario is $4.7 billion in combined annual sales with a bear case of $4.1 billion.

Resorts World Could Be New York Casino Leader

Genting’s Resorts World New York in Queens, which is already one of the top-grossing regional casinos in the country, is an advantageous position because although it’s pledging a multi-billion dollar investment as part of its conversion plan, it doesn’t need to build from the ground up as do rivals Bally’s and Hard Rock.

The research firm points out Resorts World New York could also benefit from being located in a heavily trafficked area and its close proximity to two subway stops.

“RWNYC should also benefit from having existing casino infrastructure in place and an already established customer base, as the proposed project is an expansion of the existing facility rather than a ground-up development,” adds CBRE. “RWNYC will also benefit from a first-mover advantage with its future full-scale casino license.”

Don’t Expect New York Casinos to Mirror Las Vegas

Over the course of the New York City bidding process, the phrase “Las Vegas-style casino” was frequently. While the three New York properties may eventually have the feel and look of a Strip integrated resort, CBRE notes the revenue composition in Gotham will be significantly more gaming-dependent than it is Sin City.

“This contrasts with Las Vegas, where gaming accounts for less than one-third of Strip property revenue. We do not expect Downstate New York to resemble the Vegas model — these will remain gaming-dominated properties, especially given the higher margins associated with gaming versus hotel or ancillary spending,” says the research firm.

CBRE also points out that the table games penetration at all three New York casinos will rank among the highest for all US regional casinos.