Joey Chestnut Favored to Wolf Down Most Hot Dogs During Nathan’s July 4 Showdown

Posted on: June 29, 2022, 02:58h. 

Last updated on: June 29, 2022, 03:13h.

Competitive eating superstar Joey Chestnut is once again the heavy favorite to wolf down the most Nathan’s hot dogs during the company’s annual Fourth of July International Hot Dog Eating Contest.

Joey Chestnut hot dog contest Nathan's odds
Joey Chestnut at the annual Nathan’s Fourth of July International Hot Dog Eating Contest in 2016. Chestnut is again the heavy betting favorite to win the competitive eating competition in 2022. (Image: Getty)

Chestnut is the 10-minute competitive eating event’s six-time defending champion. He was the “wiener” last year after slurping down a record 76 hot dogs — or 7.6 dogs a minute.

Oddsmakers in New Jersey are permitted to take action on the July 4 spectacle. But their odds have Chestnut favored at such length that it signifies that the houses aren’t looking for much action on the man most consider to be the best professional eater in the history of the “sport.”

BetMGM has Chestnut at -3000 to win the men’s competition. That line implies a winning chance of nearly 97%. A winning $100 wager on that line would net a measly $3.33.

The sportsbook has Chestnut’s over/under for the number of dogs consumed during the competition at 74.5. During his six-year winning streak, Chestnut has averaged 73 downed dogs.

The Nathan’s hot dog chow-down has been held most years since 1972 at the company’s original location in Coney Island. Public relations and marketing expert Mortimer “Morty” Matz, who was hired by Nathan’s in 1972, came up with the hot dog eating concept.

Matz claimed four immigrants settled their debate as to who was the most patriotic of the bunch by holding a hot dog eating contest in 1916 outside the original Nathan’s stand. Nathan’s was founded that same year by Nathan Handwerker.

Though Matz’s legend took off, he later admitted to making up the immigrant tale.

Women’s Champ Returns

On the women’s side, Miko Sudo is again the heavy favorite. After not competing last year because of pregnancy, Sudo, who had won the previous seven Nathan’s hot dog eating competitions, is back and the female front-runner.

Sudo is even more heavily favored to win at -5000. A $100 winning bet on those odds wins just $2. Sudo’s over/under is at 49.5 hot dogs. During her seven victories, she averaged 38 dogs.

Sudo, however, set the female record of 48 dogs during her 2020 victory. That contest took place indoors without fans because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Last year’s female winner, Michelle Lesco, won with just 30 dogs consumed.

Nathan’s hot dog bettors who feel a new dynasty will begin on Monday have options with Chestnut and Sudo’s competitors. In the men’s field, challengers include Geoffrey Esper (+800), Nick Wehry (+1200), Darron Breeden (+1400), and Gideon Oji (+2200).

On the women’s side, BetMGM has Lesco at +1000. Bettors can also scoop the entire female field not named Sudo at odds of +700.

Dog Breakdown

The Nathan’s hot dog eating competition utilizes the company’s standard dog. Each dog has 130 calories, 12 grams of fat (5 grams saturated), and 480 mg of sodium.

Paired with the standard Nathan’s hot dog bun, Chestnut’s record performance last year involved him taking in approximately 20,000 calories, over 1,000 grams of fat, including 456 grams of saturated fat, and more than 50,000 grams of sodium.