Joey Chestnut Heavy Favorite to Woof Down Most Hot Dogs at July 4 Contest

Posted on: July 1, 2021, 11:09h. 

Last updated on: July 1, 2021, 02:51h.

There’s no sure thing in sports betting, but Joey Chestnut is about as close as it gets. This Sunday, Chestnut will go for a record 14th victory at the Nathan’s Famous Fourth of July International Hot Dog Eating Contest. 

Joey Chestnut Nathan's hot dog eating contest
Joey Chestnut slams down a hot dog during the 2018 Nathan’s contest. Oddsmakers have him as the big favorite to win the event for a record 14th time. (Image: Getty)

Novelty betting, such as wagering on non-traditional sports such as competitive eating, remains limited at legal US sportsbooks. However, gaming regulators in New Jersey, Colorado, and New Hampshire allow their sportsbook companies to offer customers odds on such events. 

For this Independence Day hot dog showdown chow-down, oddsmakers aren’t looking to take much action on Chestnut, the 37-year-old five-time defending champ. In New Jersey, DraftKings has Chestnut at -3335 to win the contest. That represents implied odds of 97.09 percent. To win $100, a gambler will need to risk $3,335. 

Staggering Numbers

Joey Chestnut set a new mark in 2020 for the number of dogs and buns consumed during the 10-minute competition. With the contest being held inside a climate-controlled environment last July because of COVID-19, Chestnut was able to slide down 75 dogs. This is just one more than his previous best of 74 dogs set in 2018.

At 75 dogs, Chestnut consumed in just 10 minutes some 20,700 calories, 1,200 grams of fat — including more than 500g saturated — 52,000 grams of sodium, and 2,000 carbohydrates. 

Since 2007, Chestnut has lost only once, Matthew Stonie pulling off the upset in 2015 with 62 hot dogs. Chestnut came in second with 60 dogs.

The weather looks ideal for Sunday, Coney Island forecast to experience a high of 76 degrees Fahrenheit with partly cloudy skies. As for the number of dogs Chestnut will eat, DraftKings has the over/under set at 73.5 dogs. 

The women’s division also has a heavy betting favorite with Michelle Lesco. With Miki Sudo, the winner of the last seven Nathan’s hot dog contests, sitting 2021 out, Lesco, the 2019 runner-up, is the favorite. DraftKings has Lesco at -1000. 

Sudo is not participating because she’s pregnant with her first child. 

The Nathan’s hot dog competition is an official event of Major League Eating. Chestnut is the league’s top-ranked eater. 

A few Chestnut records:

  • 390 shrimp wontons in 10 minutes
  • 55 glazed donuts in eight minutes
  • 53 soft beef Taco Bell tacos in 10 minutes
  • 23 six-inch cheesesteaks in 10 minutes
  • 7.61 pounds of buffalo chicken wings in 12 minutes

Betting Volume

DraftKings told in a statement that the 2020 edition of Nathan’s hot dog championship generated a considerable handle for the sportsbook.

The 2020 contest was ranked second by handle among the most-bet novelty events on DraftKings Sportsbook historically, just behind the 2020 Academy Awards,” DraftKings revealed. “The 2020 event brought in more handle than all other eating events DraftKings Sportsbook offered combined.”

ESPN will televise the hot dog contest live at 1 pm ET on July 4th. The ticketed event at Coney Island’s Maimonides Park is sold out.