Freedom Capital Pares Flutter Q3, Q4 Estimates on U.S. Weakness, Brazil Ban

Flutter Entertainment (NYSE: FLUT) steps into the earnings confessional on Wednesday, Nov. 4, and one analyst believes the update could be grim.

In a new report to clients, Freedom Capital Markets analyst Nick McKay reduced his third- and fourth-quarter estimates on the FanDuel owner, citing issues such as an unfavorable calendar in the September quarter and Brazil’s recent online betting ban. The analyst notes that while Flutter, like its rivals, benefited from a World Cup boost in July, the calendar turned against the operator in August and September.

August was also problematic because there were significantly fewer college football games this year than in August 2025.

Some Positives, But Flutter Facing Headwinds

While Flutter executives consistently note that they see little evidence of cannibalization by prediction markets in the states in which FanDuel is legal, McKay says Freedom Capital’s estimate of 12.8% third-quarter handle growth can be seen as a positive in the context of the prediction market threat.

Still, the analyst cautioned that Flutter’s net gaming revenue (NGR) in the period was likely hindered by increased promotional generosity by the operator. He adds that while FanDuel’s iGaming segment likely posted a solid third quarter in NGR and gross gaming revenue (GGR) terms, growth rates are slowing.

Rush Street Interactive (NYSE: RSI) issued similar sentiment in its third-quarter report late Wednesday, prompting a 10% sell-off by that stock today. Brazil is also likely to be a headwind to Flutter’s results.

“In addition, the Brazil gambling ban means our international revenue and adjusted EBITDA estimates decline by $70 million and $20 million, in-line with the company’s estimated impact,” notes McKay.

Next Year Could Be Dicey, Too

Recent sell-side research is largely measured on Flutter, indicating that some analysts want to see more vibrancy in the company’s online sports betting operations before resuming bullish postures. For his part, McKay trimmed his 2027 and 2028 revenue estimates on FanDuel by $150 million, citing sportsbook lethargy.

For 2027, McKay expects Flutter to post EBITDA of $2.9 billion on revenue of $19.07 billion, down from prior estimates of $3.01 billion and $19.5 billion. For 2028, the analyst forecast EBITDA of $3.39 billion on revenue of $20.77 billion, down from $3.5 billion and $21.2 billion.