Are Putin’s Days Numbered? Polymarket Trader Bets $490K on ‘Yes’

An anonymous user on the crypto-based prediction market exchange Polymarket is betting big that Vladimir Putin won’t be the president of Russia come Dec. 31, 2026.

Going against the latest odds, NBC News was first to report that a trader under the username ZnotluvuiSamez has acquired more than 3.65 million shares of the Polymarket contract, “Putin out as president of Russia by December 31, 2026?”

ZnotluvuiSamez purchased the 3,658,041 “Yes” shares at an average price of 13.4 cents.

The position cost ZnotluvuiSamez approximately $490,177, and with shares currently trading at 11.5 cents, his investment is down almost $68,000 should he sell today.

However, if Putin is to exit the Russian presidency by 2027, those shares would become worth more than $3.65 million.

“An announcement of Vladimir Putin’s resignation/removal before this market’s end date will immediately resolve this market to ‘Yes,’ regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a ‘Yes’ resolution,” Polymarket’s market rules explain.

Polymarket says the resolution source will be official information from Vladimir Putin, the government of Russia, or a consensus of credible reporting.

User Unknown

Since Polymarket’s underlying trading platform relies on decentralized, blockchain-based infrastructure, it’s difficult to tell who is behind the ZnotluvuiSamez account. The person or entity is likely pro-Ukraine, as the account’s display picture includes the colors of the Ukrainian flag.

ZnotluvuiSamez has also traded on various other markets related to Russia and Ukraine.

Casino.org can confirm that the account holds more than 532K “Yes” shares of the market, “Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?” The account also has 70,905 “Yes” shares of “Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31?”

The ZnotluvuiSamez account joined Polymarket in April 2026. Since then, the account’s trading profit/loss is -$85,266, with most of the loss stemming from the Putin out as president market that’s unsettled.

Polymarket Insider Trading

The big bets on Putin’s days being numbered have raised eyebrows, with suspicions that the account is linked to someone with insider information.

In April, the US Department of Justice charged a military master sergeant who was involved in the mission to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro after he was allegedly discovered to have profited $200,000 by making timely Polymarket trades on when the controversial leader would no longer be in power.

Polymarket said it flagged the trades as suspicious and reported the activity to the DOJ.