Why Casinos Laugh at Failsafe Betting Beliefs

The Fallacy of Failsafe Betting Beliefs: What You’ll Learn

• Understanding the House Edge: Readers will learn how the inherent house edge guarantees that casinos profit in the long run, regardless of any betting strategy employed by players.

• Debunking Common Betting Myths: The article will expose popular failsafe betting strategies, such as the Martingale system, and explain why they ultimately fail to benefit the player.

• The Role of Chance and Probability: Readers will gain insight into the true randomness of casino games and how probability undermines the concept of a “guaranteed” winning strategy.

• The Psychology of Gambling: This article will explore the psychological factors that lead players to believe in failsafe betting beliefs despite the odds being against them.

• Real-World Examples and Anecdotes: By providing real-world examples and anecdotes, the article will illustrate how these beliefs manifest in casinos and why they ultimately result in laughter from the casino side.

Do you know a betting strategy that guarantees to work? Are there “influencers” you follow that insist they never lose? Does a failsafe betting strategy actually exist?

Unfortunately, surefire methods for making money when gambling are myths. That’s not to say there aren’t strategies that minimize risk or ones that people trust to increase payout amounts, but they are far from failsafe.

Think of it like this: a basic Blackjack strategy reduces the house edge and can lead to better outcomes but standing on a 16 when a dealer shows a 6 doesn’t mean you’ll win, but it helps.

This article will take a look at the myths about betting systems, flaws in gambling strategies, the house edge and the gambler’s fallacy.

Let’s get started.

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Is There Such a Thing as Safe Gambling?

No gambling strategy is truly failsafe as casino games are designed to have results that are random.

For example, table games have an element of randomness built into how the game is played. While there are strategies to improve the outcome, nothing is certain. Here are some examples:

• Craps: Each roll of the dice in Craps will produce a random outcome
• Blackjack: The next card out of the shoe is unknown. While there are strategies to enhance the chance of winning, nothing is guaranteed
• Roulette: The spinning wheel and ball make each outcome random and independent of any other spin.

Slot machines and video-based gambling options use a Random Number Generator (RNG) to determine the outcome. This algorithm ensures each spin of the slot machine reels or video poker card is completely random. Casinos must prove this to regulators to ensure licensing and compliance.

For online gambling, the RNG is what determines the result (unless you hit on 20 in Blackjack, that loss is on you). Legitimate gaming sites will also have licenses and certifications from government regulators to ensure fairness on each game.

The Casino’s House Edge

Casinos ensure a house edge is always present. This means that the system is set up to draw in more money than it gives out.

For an example of what the house edge means for the player, let’s take a look at American Roulette.

In Roulette, there are 36 numbers as well as a 0 and 00, therefore, the Roulette wheel has 38 potential pockets for the ball to land in. Any number has a 1-in-38 chance of being the winner. What does a winning number pay? 35:1, not 38:1. That’s the house edge.

Every game has a built-in house edge.

Why do Myths about Gambling Systems Persist?

There are people who believe their gambling system is the one that’s guaranteed to work. Others think they can recognize patterns and bet at the right times. And have you heard the story about the person who wore their lucky mismatched socks, wore their lucky hat and held their lucky penny before winning the jackpot?

None of these guarantees more money or increased winning potential, but myths continue to persist. Why?

Misunderstanding of Probability

Too often, many mistake short-term wins as patterns. They’ll approach a Roulette table and place their chips on a spot recalling the last time they kept playing that way they couldn’t lose. Then they start losing.

Same thing with Craps. The player won consistently with one strategy before, only to have the same strategy blow up in their face.

Probability doesn’t change based on past results. Just because something worked before, it doesn’t mean it will happen again. Casino games are designed to be random so it’s important to recognize that a pattern in gambling is truly nothing more than a coincidence.

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Beware of the Anecdotal Success Stories

When someone wins the lottery, they pose for the camera holding a giant check and the amount they won. What you don’t hear is how many millions of people lost the lottery.

Stories of wins get more attention than losses.

In land-based casinos, there are often pictures of previous jackpot winners, not the ones who spent $1,000 chasing a slot machine jackpot that never materialized. This makes it feel like a jackpot is within reach, even though the probability of winning it is very low.

Also, people don’t like to share stories about their trip to the casino if they lost. But they love sharing about how much money they won. Just like no one’s life is as amazing as they make it seem on social media, the same holds true when individuals share their casino highlights.

My stories of winning money at the Craps table are much more exciting than when I lose; that story generally goes like this, “Yeah, I didn’t do so good.”

What are the flaws in popular gambling strategies like the Martingale system?

Perhaps you’ve heard of popular gambling strategies like the Martingale system, Fibonacci system and the 1-3-2-6 betting system. These “tried-and-true” strategies are built with some serious flaws. So, while many will get behind these systems or others, try to recognize why they may not truly work.

The Martingale system is considered one of the more popular gambling strategies, but here are the exponential risks behind this system:

What is the Martingale System?

The Martingale Betting System is a method of doubling your bet after every loss. This would mean that a single win would recover the amount you bet thus far.

What is the flaw in the Martingale System?

While this sounds good in theory, the reality is that a series of losses could be catastrophic and relies on an infinite amount of money and no table limits. Let’s consider your initial wager is $25, here is how quickly things add up.

1. $25

2. $50

3. $100

4. $200

5. $400

6. $800

After 5 straight losses, you would have wagered and lost a total of $775. After 6 losses, it’s at $1,575. Now, the average table has a maximum bet of $1,000 so if you lose 6 hands in a row, you lose the chance to recover because you max out at $1,000.

How Table Limits and Bankroll Exhaustion Impact Betting Systems

• Casinos have betting limits that cut off doubling strategies (see above).

• Personal bankroll can run out before hitting a win regardless of the strategy you choose. Per the example above, if you start your bet with $25, do you really have enough to bankroll beyond 4-5 losses?

How Do Casinos Maintain Their Edge Over Players?

Casinos have a built-in house edge that favors the casino. In the example of Roulette, a winning individual number pays 35:1 even though there are 38 numbers. With the odds set up slightly against players, the house eventually wins.

This isn’t just in table games, but video slot machines as well. Although wins are based on a Random Number Generator, casinos can set up a certain advantage.

Slot machines are designed to return a certain percentage of money to the player (Return to Player or RTP) over the long run. This is why casinos can advertise “loose” slots with a RTP of 96% – some online casinos boast upwards of 99.5% RTP.

Casinos also use psychological tactics to keep gamblers playing longer.

• Free drinks, especially alcoholic beverages, can impair judgement and cause players to make emotional or unusual decisions.
• Flashing lights/loud noises are used to create a fun, lively atmosphere
• Dark windows and no clocks make it difficult to track time
• Rewards programs are used to encourage players to stay longer to gain points

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How to Prevent Believing in Failsafe Gambling Systems

There are several ways you can ensure you’re taking a logical approach to gambling.

Educate Yourself on Game Mechanics

If you understand the rules and odds of games before playing, you’ll be able to maximize your playtime and bankroll.

• Blackjack: Sticking to a basic strategy can lower the house edge to below 1%
• Roulette: The odds of winning off an individual number is 2.65% whereas a bet on Red or Black has the odds of winning of 48.6%. Granted the payout is much lower because you’re more likely to win.
• Slot Machines: Odds will differ from game-to-game, but they average between 85-98% in a land-based casino.

Awareness reduces the chances of falling for myths.

Set Strict Personal Limits

Setting a budget before starting to gamble and sticking to it helps prevent believing in gambling systems. How? Because you’re setting yourself to play logically instead of emotionally. Because casino gaming is random, steady bets are more likely to produce a better outcome over the long term.

It’s also important to set time limits and stick with it. While no one wants to walk away from a table when they’re doing well, stepping away for a bit ensures you don’t begin chasing losses.

There are plenty of examples of gamblers being up, only to start losing. They’ll chase losses so they can regain their winnings but often end up in the negative. If you notice you’re wagering based on trying to recover winnings, step away and take a break.

The Gambler’s Fallacy Explained

Understanding the Gambler’s Fallacy is a way to help ensure you don’t fall into it.

What is the Gambler’s Fallacy?

The Gambler’s Fallacy is the belief that when something happens with more frequency than is expected, then it will happen with less frequency in the future even though the probability never changes.

Roulette takes advantage of this concept because tables often show the previous 10 or more numbers that came up. If someone saw a Red number land five times in a row, they may think that a Black number is due. However, every spin is random and independent of all the previous ones. Regardless of how many times Red came up, there is still a 48.5% chance it will hit on the next spin.

In Craps, rolling a 7 after a point is established means the table loses. Sometimes if a long time has passed since a 7 has been rolled, a player will start pulling their bets. While 7 is the most likely number to be rolled, it is irrelevant how many times a different number came up before it. Each roll is independent of the previous one – it had just as likely a chance of being rolled all those times before.

The reason for the Gambler’s Fallacy is because people expect things to balance out in the short term whereas they tend to balance out in the long run.

Supplementary Information on Gambling Strategies

If there is no failsafe betting strategy, are there at least casino games that are more likely to win over others?

The Top 5 Most Winnable Casino Games:

Skill-Based Games vs. Chance-Based Games

The difference between skill-based games and chance-based games is the player’s ability to influence the outcome.

Skill-Based Games examples include Poker and Blackjack because they involve the player making a decision or using a strategy to impact the outcome of the game.

In Blackjack, for example, a player can Hit or Stand, which directly plays into whether they may win or lose.

Chance-Based Games are those where the player has no influence on the result. Examples include slot machines or Roulette. While the player may make choices on how they play the game, for instance, where to place their chips on the Roulette table, they are beholden to the outcome without having any influence.

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Once Upon a Time in Las Vegas: A Gambler’s Fallacy Story

My friend Chad loved playing Roulette. One time, him and I were spending some time in Vegas and he wanted to head over to the Roulette table to test his luck on the “Devil’s Game.” When we sat down, he eyed the board indicating the previous numbers that came up.

Red. Red. Red.

In fact, a Red number had come up almost 10 times in a row.

“Black,” he said. “It’s due. Look.”

He pointed to the board – it was hard to argue. That many Reds in a row seemed impossible and so Black had to come up.

We put our chips on Black and spread out a few wagers in other areas for fun.

Red came up on the first spin. Actually, it came up three more times.

This is the Gambler’s Fallacy. We had thought Black had to come up simply because Red won so many times in a row. But the truth is, each spin was random and independent of all other spins. Black wasn’t due anymore than Red was due to come up again

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