Wynn UAE-Induced Sell-Off Overdone, Says Analyst

• The casino stock is slumping since the start of 2026
• It’s off 10.51% over the past month, a period including US and Israeli against Iran and Iranian drone missile strikes against the UAE
• Analyst says Middle East-related sell-off is overblown

Shares of Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN) are struggling and that weakness is amplified by conflict in the Middle East where the company will soon be the lone casino.

Over the past two weeks, the stock is off about 11%, or more than quadruple S&P 500’s loss over the same period, amid US and Israeli strikes against Iran and that country firing back, including some targeting of assets in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) where Wynn Al Marjan Island, the $5.1 billion casino resort, will open early next year.

With Wynn carving out new territory in a region that previously prohibited regulated wagering and one known for geopolitical tensions, investors are understandably unnerved.

Given the recent turmoil in the Middle East, investors want to know what the potential impact could/would be on WYNN’s UAE casino resort project slated to open in 1Q27,” said Stifel analyst Steven Wieczynski in a Sunday report. “Simple answer is WYNN isn’t sure given the fact this Middle East unrest has only been going on for a few days. There is really nothing to say right now and any longer-term thoughts would just be speculation on their part and our part.”

The analyst did, however, reiterate a “buy” rating and a $150 price target on the casino stock, adding the Middle East-related sell-off is likely a case of too much too fast.

Wynn UAE Casino not Targeted by Iran…Yet

Wynn and its local partners are close to putting the finishing touches on the UAE integrated resort, which is located about an hour from Dubai by car.

That proximity is believed to be advantageous for the casino hotel because Dubai’s economy is booming and the emirate draws affluent tourists from all over the world, but the location is a reason why Wynn shares slumped of late. Two five-star Dubai resorts — the Burj Al Arab hotel and the Fairmont The Palm Hotel — were hit by Iranian strikes on Feb. 28.

“While it wouldn’t surprise us if there were some slight delays around the construction timeline as we believe WYNN wants to keep every employee that is involved in the construction of this project safe, even if there is a delay to the eventual opening, it would be immaterial to the long-term value of WYNN shares and not worthy of an ~11% drop in the share price in such a short period of time,” adds Wieczynski.

Analysts Bullish on Wynn UAE Casino

In December, Wynn conducted a UAE analyst/investor tour and the sell-side takeaways were broadly bullish. Obviously, that was prior to the Iran conflict, but there’s belief that the operator’s UAE earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and fees forecast of $265 million to $460 million annually may prove too light.

That’d be a good thing for Wynn, its local partners and investors. Wieczynski concurs that outlook may ultimately prove too conservative.

“We continue to feel incredibly confident that WYNN’s projected EBITDA (which was maintained at WYNN’s recent UAE investor event) will ultimately prove conservative for several reasons. Based on our math, we believe the UAE project could be worth $19-$25 in today’s dollars,” concludes the analyst.