Wynn UAE Casino Could Propel Shares

• More analysts are coming around on Wynn’s upcoming UAE casino resort
• UBS upgraded the stock on the UAE opportunity set
• Analyst says Wynn may be too restrained with its UAE estimates

Wynn Resorts’ (NASDAQ: WYNN) Wynn Al Marjan Island in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is gaining more attention from sell-side analysts as a potential long-term catalyst for the operator’s stock.

On Thursday, UBS analyst Robin Farley upgraded shares of Wynn to “buy” from “hold,” citing potential upside attributable to the UAE casino resort, adding that Wynn may be too conservative with its estimates on what will be the first regulated gaming venue in the Middle East.

We estimate run rate adjusted property earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, and management fees (EBITDAM) of $730 million, representing meaningful upside to WYNN’s base case adjusted property EBITDAM estimate of $625 million,” notes Farley. “We anticipate that WYNN being the only gaming operator in the UAE should provide a meaningful head start in capturing loyalty among ultra high net worth international customers.”

Farley lifted her price target on Wynn to $147 from $101, implying upside of nearly 16% from current levels. The shares, which are up 47.24% year-to-date, hit a 52-week high earlier this week.

Wynn UAE Casino Could Be Estimate-Beater

Las Vegas-based hasn’t been shy about describing the UAE property as a compelling opportunity and one with attractive long-term growth prospects, but as Farley notes, the operator may be too restrained in its forecasts for the venue.

It is possible that if other emirates approve casino gaming, UAE as a whole could eventually ascend to the fourth spot among global gaming markets. Some analysts believe that with contributions from other integrated resorts in the future, the UAE could be a $3 billion to $5 billion market in terms of annual gross gaming revenue (GGR). Still, there’s no denying that Wynn Al Marjan Island is going to have a multi-year monopoly – one that will allow to cultivate loyalty among the well-heeled locals and tourists that travel to the UAE.

Farley highlight’s Wynn’s “gaming-plus” model as potentially additive in the UAE, meaning the operator will continue its playbook of emphasizing plush amenities, high-end dining and entertainment, and tony retail stores in an effort to take the focus off betting. UBS estimates Wynn Al Marjan Island could be worth$34 a share, well above the $7 to $12 implied in the operator’s share price today.

Macau Carrying the Day for Wynn Shares

With the UAE casino hotel slated to open in early 2027 and things slow on the Las Vegas Strip, Wynn is a Macau story and that’s a good thing because gross gaming revenue (GGR) is rebounding in significant fashion, flirting with the highest levels since before the coronavirus pandemic.

UBS lifted its Macau GGR growth forecasts for this year and 2026, calling for increases of 8% and 5%, respectively, adding that Wynn is likely to maintain or increase its already solid positioning among premium mass bettors and VIPs. Farley upped her valuation for Wynn’s Macau business to $76 a share from $49.