Wynn Resorts Forecasts 22% Revenue Increase by 2021, Outlines ‘Selective’ Approach to Acquisitions at Investor Day
Posted on: July 10, 2019, 10:55h.
Last updated on: July 11, 2019, 01:38h.
Wynn Resorts, Ltd. (NASDAQ: WYNN) said it expects revenue will surge 22 percent by 2021 while forecasting a 28 percent increase in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) over the same period.
The company made the comments at its annual analyst and investor day held from the recently opened Encore Boston Harbor. Wynn also said it sees capital expenditures declining to $215 million by 2021 from $1.2 billion this year.
Looking out to 2021, the gaming company highlighted a number of factors that could affect performance in its three marquee markets: Macau, Las Vegas, and Boston.
In Macau, a market that accounted for three-quarters of Wynn’s 2018 operating revenue, the company cites a recovery in its share of VIPs, increased percentage of the mass market, and positive broader economic conditions as potential growth drivers over the next two years. Wynn said a slowdown in the Chinese economy and lingering softness among high rollers could hinder its Macau growth.
In its home market of Las Vegas, Wynn highlighted an improving baccarat business, enhanced US casino initiatives, and the 2020 debut of the NFL’s Raiders in Sin City as potential upside drivers there through 2021.
The inverted yield curve correctly forecasts recession and macro drives continued suppression of baccarat,” could be downside risks for Wynn in Las Vegas over the next two years.
An inverted yield curve occurs when the yield on three-month T-bills moves above the yield on 10-year Treasuries, a condition that has been in place nearly two months. The longer the curve remains inverted, the better it becomes at predicting a recession.
Declining Spending, Boosting Cash
In a presentation to analysts and investors obtained by Casino.org, Wynn Resorts estimated it will spend $1.2 billion this year with $615 million of that sum being directed to Encore Boston Harbor and another $125 million aimed at its Macau properties.
Next year, the owner of the Wynn and Encore in Las Vegas expects to shell out $525 million, with $325 million allocated to Sin City expansion and sprucing up guest rooms. Capital spending for 2021 is forecast at $215 million, all of which appears devoted to general maintenance, according to a slide deck given to analysts and investors.
The Encore Boston Harbor owner is also projecting a massive increase in free cash flow (FCF) over the next two years. Noting that “FCF inflection is imminent,” Wynn said its 2021 discretionary FCF target is $1.68 billion, or $16 per share. If the company gets anywhere close to $16 a share in FCF, it would likely be good for one of the best marks in the casino industry.
As for shareholder rewards, Wynn noted its quarterly dividend has doubled to $1 a share from 50 cents in the fourth quarter of 2017 and that it repurchased $157 million worth of its own stock in the last three months of 2018.
The company said it is focusing on “sustainable dividends” and that it will “selectively consider” special payouts. As for buybacks, Wynn described its methodology there as “opportunistic rather than programmatic.”
Betting On Boston, Expansion Opportunities
Encore Boston Harbor is widely viewed as integral to Wynn Resorts’ efforts to diversify its revenue mix away from Macau. The venue along the Mystic River has 3,158 slot machines, 143 table games, and 88 poker tables. More importantly, it is situated in a market with growth opportunities.
For the trailing 12 months ending March 2019, a period in which Encore Boston Harbor was not open, gross gaming revenue in the area topped $2.6 billion, up from $2.39 billion in the year-earlier period, according to Wynn data. The company said there are about 5.6 million gaming age adults within a 90-minute drive of the Everett, Mass. casino.
As for expansion efforts, the Wynn presentation indicates spending will be focused on Macau and the Japan integrated resort effort, but the company could “selectively evaluate M&A (mergers and acquisitions) opportunities” as long as those deals consist of “irreplaceable IRs in gateway cities” and “drive equity value.”
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