Winklevoss Twins’ Crypto Exchange Eyeing Prediction Markets Entry

• Gemini Space Station, the brothers’ cryptocurrency exchange, is reportedly looking to get into the prediction markets fray
• The company recently went public and applied for designated contract market (DCM) status in May
• Its prediction markets launch could be imminent

Gemini Space Station (NASDAQ: GEMI), the digital currency exchange controlled by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, is reportedly considering the rapidly growing prediction markets industry, bringing another crypto-centric player to the space.

Citing unidentified sources with knowledge of the matter, Bloomberg reported late Tuesday that Gemini could soon make event contracts available to clients. The company, which went public in September, pursued approval from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in May to launch its own derivatives trading platform, known as a designated contract market (DCM). That designation is essential to being able to offer event contracts in the US.

In May, the company filed an entity known as “Gemini Titan” with the CFTC — the regulator overseeing US derivatives exchanges — as part of its quest for DCM licensing.

That application is still pending, and approval could be delayed by the ongoing US government shutdown, according to Bloomberg. The shutdown is also posing a threat to Polymarket’s hopes of relaunching in the US by the end of this month.

Prediction Markets Could Lift Faltering Gemini Stock

Since its mid-September initial public offering (IPO), Gemini Space Station has lost nearly half its value, but the sell-side is mostly bullish on the name, with six of the 11 ratings on the stock being the equivalent of “buy,” and none being a “sell.” The consensus price target is $30.10, implying significant upside from current levels.

Gemini’s pursuit of event contracts may be the result of the company reading competitive tea leaves. Rival Crypto.com is already in the space, and Coinbase Global (NASDAQ: COIN) is considering a similar move. Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD), which offers cryptocurrency trading among other services, is a major contributor to Kalshi’s volume.

Should Gemini land DCM approval, it would give investors another publicly traded prediction markets play to consider at a time when industry leaders Kalshi and Polymarket remain closely held.

Gemini Stock Could Use the Help

Data indicate that more than 80% of the volume on Gemini’s exchange is derived from institutional investors. Integration of prediction markets could be appealing to both professional market participants and retail traders — the latter of which are displaying clear enthusiasm for event contracts, as highlighted by the ballooning volume on Kalshi, roughly a third of which is generated by Robinhood clients.

Some analysts see prediction markets as avenues for Gemini Space Station to diversify its revenue model, which is highly dependent on the volatile cryptocurrency trading segment.