Polymarket Could Be Live in US by End of November

  • Sports contracts expected to be point of emphasis in US return
  • Polymarket could be available in this country by end of November on a limited basis
  • Company was banished from the US in 2022

Polymarket could be live in the US by the end of November, adding a new player to this country’s football-fueled prediction markets madness.

Polymarket
A Polymarket logo. The exchange could be back in the US by the end of November. (Image: Wikipedia)

Citing unidentified sources with knowledge of the matter, Bloomberg reported earlier Tuessday that Shayne Coplan’s company could return to the US by end of the next month, but the platform won’t immediately be available to all bettors and traders. The exchange operator is currently looking for beta testers and has a wait list.

It’s believed sports contracts will be central to Polymarket’s return to the US and the estimated timing of the company’s reentry into this market aligns with that speculation. Assuming the prediction market is operational here at some point next month, it’d capture the tail end of college football’s regular season while potentially benefiting the latter part of the NFL season and the ramping up of the NBA and college basketball.

If Polymarket reenters the US next month, it’d occur roughly a year after Coplan’s Manhattan apartment was raided by the FBI and more than three years after the company was banished from this country amid a regulatory flap with the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Polymarket US Return Could Drive Valuation Higher

Speculation that Polymarket could be operating this country, albeit on a limited basis, next month arrives against the backdrop of soaring prediction market valuations.

Earlier this month, Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE), the owner of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), took a $2 billion stake in Polymarket at a pre-money valuation of $8 billion. That deal, which made Coplan the youngest self-made billionaire on record, values the exchange at $9 billion to $10 billion on a post-transaction basis.

Last week, rumors surfaced that Polymarket may be pursuing another capital raise at a valuation of $12 billion to $15 billion. Word is Kalshi – Polymarket’s primary rival – fresh off a funding round that pushed its valuation to $5 billion, may be in talks to raise more cash at a $10 billion to $12 billion to price point. By some estimates, more than 80% of Kalshi’s current turnover is derived from sports event contracts, perhaps underscoring why those derivatives are central to Polymarket’s US return.

The valuation gap between the two companies is, according to some industry observers, largely attributable to Polymarket being the more cryptocurrency-centric of the pair. Digital currencies, mostly stablecoins, are used for trading on the platform, which is backed by blockchain technology.

About Polymarket and Crypto…

Rumors of Polymarket’s potentially imminent return to the US aren’t lost on the crypto community. In fact, many in that space believe the prediction market giant’s reentry into this country is a precursor to it launching its own cryptocurrency and potentially conducting an airdrop.

It’s believed the “POLY” token is already in the works to some extent, but that effort is on the backburner until the company cements its return to this country.

That return comes amid surging prediction markets competition. For example, DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) recently announced an acquisition setting the stage for DraftKings Predictions and on Tuesday, Trump Media and Technology Group (NASDAQ: DJT) and Crypto.com announced a partnership that will see the latter integrate event contracts on the former’s Truth Social platform.

Todd Shriber
Todd Shriber Financial Reporter

Todd Shriber is a senior news reporter covering gaming financials, casino business, stocks, and mergers and acquisitions for Casino.org.

Todd got his start in financial markets as a reporter with Bloomberg News. Later, he became a trader at a Southern California-based long/short hedge fund, where he specialized in the trading sector and international ETFs leading up to and during the financial crisis. He joined Casino.org in 2019.

Currently, Todd analyzes, researches, and writes on ETFs for various web-based publications and financial services firms. Shriber has been featured and quoted in Barron's, CNBC.com, and The Wall Street Journal. His work can also be found on Benzinga, ETF Daily News, ETF Trends, MarketWatch, Fox Business, and Nasdaq.com.

He currently resides in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golf and taking his black lab to the dog park. He's also an avid sports fan and likes to wager on college football and the NBA. You can also find him at the three-card poker and roulette table, even though he knows better.

Contact Todd at todd.shriber@casino.org.

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