Public Betting on Brady’s Bucs Over Brees’ Saints in NFL QB Showdown

Posted on: September 13, 2020, 12:01h. 

Last updated on: September 13, 2020, 03:55h.

Talk about a heavyweight showdown for the first Sunday of the NFL season. In one corner, it’s New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees, who is No. 1 in NFL history with 77,416 passing yards and 547 touchdown passes. In the other corner, it’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady, who ranks second in NFL history with 74,517 passing yards and 541 touchdown passes, but No. 1 with six Super Bowl rings.

In a battle between top Super Bowl contenders and NFC South powerhouses, New Orleans is a 3.5-point favorite. Bettors, however, have been all over the underdog.

All the public money is on the Buccaneers thus far,” Kevin Hennessy, the director of publicity for FanDuel, told “This has reflected their popularity throughout the off-season since Brady joined the team.”

According to Hennessy, 55 percent of the bets and 61 percent of the spread money is on the Buccaneers. That includes 66 percent of the bets and 55 percent of the money on the money line.

Not only does the public love Brady’s Bucs, but the Saints are a woeful 2-15 against the spread in their last 17 games played in Week 1 and Week 2.

Top Super Bowl Contenders

Entering Sunday, the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs are +550 to win the Super Bowl. They are followed closely by the Baltimore Ravens at +650. Up next is the heft of the NFC. New Orleans is +1,200, Dallas and Tampa Bay are +1,500, and Philadelphia and Seattle are +2,000.

No doubt the addition of Brady specifically helped Tampa’s championship odds,” Hennessy told, noting the Bucs are FanDuel’s biggest liability on the championship market.

“On top of the upgrade at quarterback, it implied other name players would play at higher levels. Their price has come in from +3,500 into +1,500. Though they are better, there’s definitely a pronounced public contingent backing them to the point where their price is likely too short across the market.”

The 43-year-old Brady and 41-year-old Brees are the two oldest players in the NFL. Sunday’s meeting will be the first in NFL history between two starting quarterbacks age 40 or older. And it’s the first game since at least 1950 between the league’s two all-time leaders in touchdown passes. ​

Moreover, they’ve carved up defenses on opening weekend. Brees has 39 touchdown passes in 18 career Week 1 games, while Brady has 37 in 17 Week 1 games. Those are the most in NFL history.

Around the League

Tampa Bay isn’t the only team the public loves. At William Hill, 87 percent of the money has been placed on Pittsburgh against the New York Giants, 86 percent has come on Indianapolis against undermanned Jacksonville, 85 percent is on Buffalo against the New York Jets, 84 percent is on Las Vegas against Carolina, and 83 percent is on Arizona against San Francisco.

One bettor at William Hill placed $30,000 on the Cardinals as seven-point underdogs. At -110, the payout would be more than $57,000.

“I think it’s a lot of factors for why Arizona is getting this much action,” Nick Bogdanovich, the director of trading for William Hill, told “Year 2 of Kyler Murray, everyone’s thinking he’s gonna have a breakout season. They got DeAndre Hopkins. San Francisco’s a little banged up with their receivers. These two teams know each other well, and Arizona has hung with them the past couple seasons.”

On the over/under market, an amazing 94 percent of the money at William Hill has come on the under between the Los Angeles Chargers and Cincinnati – two teams with question marks at quarterback. Also, 86 percent is on the under between Philadelphia and Washington. Meanwhile, 89 percent of the money is on the over with Arizona vs. San Francisco, and 86 percent is on the over with Las Vegas vs. Carolina, Seattle vs. Atlanta, and Dallas vs. the Los Angeles Rams.

Here is the Week 1 schedule, with point spread and over/unders from FanDuel.


  • Chicago at Detroit (-2.5; o/u 42.5)
  • Cleveland at Baltimore (-7 1/2; o/u 48.5)
  • Green Bay at Minnesota (-2.5; o/u 44.5)
  • Indianapolis at Jacksonville (+7.5; o/u 45.5)
  • Las Vegas at Carolina (+3; o/u 47.5)
  • Miami at New England (-6 1/2; o/u 42)
  • N.Y. Jets at Buffalo (-6 1/2; o/u 39.5)
  • Philadelphia at Washington (+5.5; o/u 42.5)
  • Seattle at Atlanta (+2 1/2; o/u 49)
  • L.A. Chargers at Cincinnati (+3; o/u 41.5)
  • Arizona at San Francisco (-6.5; o/u 48.5)
  • Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-3 1/2; o/u 47.5)
  • Dallas at L.A. Rams (+3; o/u 51.5)

Monday night

  • Pittsburgh at N.Y. Giants (+5.5; o/u 45.5)
  • Tennessee at Denver (+2.5; o/u 40.5)