Singapore Summit with Donald Trump, Kim Jong Un Spurs Online Odds, North Korean Leader Arrives With Personal Porta-Potty
Posted on: June 11, 2018, 12:00h.
Last updated on: June 11, 2018, 12:17h.
The historic Singapore Summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un that kicks off on Tuesday has online sportsbooks and American political prediction markets running wild with outcome odds of the critical meetup.
Trump and Kim are expected to meet privately with translators at 9 am SGT Tuesday (9 pm ET on Monday). After what’s expected to be an hours-long discussion, the two politicians will then invite their closest advisors into the room for continued talks.
Security assurances — specifically those that could convince Kim to disengage any threat of using nuclear weapons — are expected to be high on Trump’s negotiating agenda. As for North Korea’s intentions, Trump said “within the first minute” he’ll be able to pinpoint what brought the “Supreme Leader” to the summit.
Online political betting site PredictIt asks whether Trump and Kim will agree to resume their talks at the White House. “Yes” shares are trading at 28 cents, and “No” the favorite at 72 cents. Odds of this week’s meeting being abruptly canceled are posted at 12/1 by Irish bookmaker Paddy Power.
Trump and Kim have both now arrived on Sentosa Island, and Kim’s entourage brought a personal toilet for Kim. Why? Information gleaned from his excrement could potentially be used to discern his health status. More specifically — according to South Korean news site Chosun Ilbo — the one-man eliminator will keep ” … determined sewer divers [from gaining] insights into the supreme leader’s stools.”
What’s the Big Deal?
Kim travels to Singapore are the furthest the leader has ventured from his homeland since taking office in late 2011, following the death of his father Kim Jong Il.
Bill Clinton met with Kim II in 2009 — eight years after his presidency had ended — to secure the release of two American journalists. Before that, former president Jimmy Carter traveled to both Koreas one year into Clinton’s presidency in 1994, with much the same agenda as Trump arrives with now: to disarm nuclear weapons.
Trump says this is a “one-time shot” for the current leader.
The president believes Kim wants to make a deal, and oddsmakers concur. Kim has been showing a new, slightly softer side of late, and at least appears to be ready to make a deal.
PredictIt’s market on whether Kim will still be in power at the end of 2018 has “Yes” shares trading at 89 cents. That’s up from 85 cents in March.
Rumors emerged last week that one bargaining point North Korea is hoping to make in exchange for its nuclear disarmament is assistance in building an integrated casino resort. Kim reportedly wants to welcome tourism under his leadership, and believes such a venue would attract foreign visitors. But a Trump-initiated North Korea visa ban for Americans remains in place for now.
Paddy Power, as per its usual MO, isn’t sticking to serious matters alone. Odds on a variety trivial — and not-so-trival — outcomes from the Trump-Kim summit abound on the bookie’s website.
Paddy asks what color tie Trump will wear, with red the favorite at 1/3. Blue is next (2/1), followed by silver and purple (10/1), green (12/1), and orange (14/1).
The bookmaker also thinks there’s little chance the two political leaders will play a round of golf together this year (16/1), and slim odds that Trump visits North Korea (10/1).
As for the odds of North and South Korea uniting as one country: Paddy has that line at 5/1.
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