Sen. Elizabeth Warren Democratic Betting Frontrunner for 2020 Ticket, as Former VP Joe Biden Slips
Posted on: August 13, 2019, 08:18h.
Last updated on: August 13, 2019, 02:11h.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts) has emerged as the strongest challenger to former VP Joe Biden securing the Democratic Party’s 2020 presidential ticket. That’s according to political bettors who are wagering money on their election outcome beliefs.
For the first time since Warren officially launched her campaign on February 9, the Massachusetts Democrat is the favorite at online political betting exchange PredictIt.
Over the last few days, shares of Warren securing the 2020 Democratic ticket have been trading around 28 cents. That puts her in a dead heat with Biden.
If she wins, political bettors who take those odds would net 72 cents per share. Since the end of July, Warren’s shares have surged more than 27 percent.
Biden has been the target for many in the crowded 2020 Democratic primary, and that was especially true during the first two rounds of debates.
The former VP appeared in the second night of the second round of debates standing between Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders (Vermont) and South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg. Biden was repeatedly attacked – primarily by Sen. Kamala Harris (California).
Bettors initially felt he weathered the storm adequately. Shares on the 76-year-old winning the party’s presidential election climbed three cents in the debate aftermath. But Biden has been losing stock since. His shares have dropped from 31 cents on August 4, to 27 cents this week.
There’s a growing sentiment that Sanders simply isn’t generating the same fervor as he has in years past, and that the 77-year-old might be willing to unite forces with Warren – someone he admires and shares much ideology with.
If one of them started doing well and one not so well, it’d probably be a good idea if one of them dropped out,” Russ Feingold, a former Senator from Washington, told McClatchyDC.
That would help prevent a split of Warren and Sanders supporters, which would make Biden’s road to the party ticket more difficult.
What Odds Say
2016 showed that polls might not be the best indicator in predicting political election outcomes.
Fox News Libertarian John Stossel runs ElectionBettingOdds.com, a site that utilizes betting lines from London sportsbook BetFair. He said following the surprising Donald Trump win in 2016, “Don’t trust the polls or pundits. Polls reveal only snapshot of current opinion. When a polling company reaches the rare person willing to talk to a stranger on the phone, chances are that person is not well-informed about politics.”
US sportsbooks are barred from offering odds on political events. But that’s not the case overseas. In Europe, oddsmakers give Trump a 47.8 percent chance of winning re-election. Biden is his closest challenger at 13 percent, and Warren at 12.2 percent, and Sanders 6.8 percent.
PredictIt is a rare exception in the US where Americans can wager money (up to $850 per question) on political events. The online exchange operated by New Zealand’s Victoria University was issued a “No Action” letter by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in October of 2014.
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