Prediction Markets

Prediction Market Daily Volume Flirts with $2B in July

Posted on: August 3, 2026, 07:27h.

Last updated on: August 3, 2026, 07:27h.

Written by

Todd Shriber Todd Shriber is a senior news reporter covering gaming financials, casino business, stocks, and mergers and acquisitions for Casino.org. Todd got his start in financial markets as a reporter with Bloomberg News...
Click for more

Key Points

Average daily volume on prediction markets nearly reached $2 billion last month, according to Jefferies
That represents 9% month-over-month growth
The World Cup helped, but non-sports categories grew, too

Across U.S. prediction markets, average daily volume (ADV) approached $2 billion last month, jumping to $1.91 billion, according to Jefferies.

World Cup prediction market ADI Predictstreet Kalshi — The World Cup drove a July increase in prediction market volume, but non-sports categories grew as well. (Image: Getty)

Confirming benefits derived from the World Cup, turnover on all-or-nothing exchanges jumped 9% on a sequential basis. That may be a sign that prediction market volume accelerated as the tournament entered the knockout rounds and that the industry withstood the departure of the U.S. team in the Round of 16. Importantly, there’s also evidence some upstart operators drew increased volume last month.

“Other platforms that we track had $161 million ADV (-6% m/m; +26,588% y/y), with market share coming down to 8% of industry ADV (from 10% in June),” notes Jefferies analyst Daniel Fannon. “In particular, Rothera, which launched in June, had $70 million total ADV (+24% m/m), representing 3.7% of industry ADV (vs 3.2% in June) although it is important to note discrepancies w/w with ADV peaking at $137 million for the week ended 6/26 (6.2% of total market ADV) and declining to $8 million for week ended 7/31 (0.5% of total market ADV) after World Cup contracts rolled off.”

Rothera is a partnership between Robinhood (NASDAQ: HOOD) and Susquehanna International Group. The prediction market is a separate entity from the brokerage firm, though Robinhood announced prior to the start of the World Cup that would route trades on the tournament through Rothera.

Non-Sports Activity Increased on Prediction Markets

The July sports/non-sports on yes/no exchanges may been skewed due to the World Cup, potentially making the uptick in non-sports turnover all the more impressive though open interest (OI) in those categories decline last month.

“From a product mix standpoint, sports ADV grew +12% m/m to $1.333 billion, while non-sports grew +5% m/m to $424 million in July,” adds Fannon. “Sports share of total ADV grew to 76% in July (vs 67% in June). On the OI side, sports held a 73% share of total OI, down slightly from 75% in June. Sports OI came in at $1.16 billion (-28% m/m; +5,736% y/y) in July, while non-sports came in at $423 million (-22% m/m; +1,247% y/y).”

With 2026 midterm Election Day about three months away, it’s likely non-sports volume on prediction markets will trend higher. Still, it’s hard to overlook the impact of the World Cup from a volume perspective.

“During June and July, prediction markets saw a huge increase in volume from the 2026 FIFA Soccer World Cup,” observes Fannon. “This event generated a record $20 billion in prediction market volume according to Chainanalysis and represented by far the single biggest prediction market event, far exceeding volumes associated with the 2024 US Presidential Election, the previous largest event ($3.6 billion).”

Busy July in Other Ways

In addition to the volume spike, July was a busy month in other ways for the emerging prediction market industry, particularly on the deal-making and partnership fronts.

As just a few examples, Fanatics announced the purchase of a regulated exchange and clearinghouse from BGC Group (NASDAQ: BGC), allowing the buyer to bring its exchange operations in-house and there’s talk (unconfirmed for now) of a potential partnership between Crypto.com and Robinhood.

The month concluded with a bang when on July 30, IG Group (LON: IGG) announced a $1.3 billion deal to acquire Underdog, which is rapidly climbing the ranks of U.S. prediction market operators.

Todd Shriber is a senior news reporter covering gaming financials, casino business, stocks, and mergers and acquisitions for Casino.org.

Todd got his start in financial markets as a reporter with Bloomberg News. Later, he became a trader at a Southern California-based long/short hedge fund, where he specialized in the trading sector and international ETFs leading up to and during the financial crisis. He joined Casino.org in 2019.

Currently, Todd analyzes, researches, and writes on ETFs for various web-based publications and financial services firms. Shriber has been featured and quoted in Barron's, CNBC.com, and The Wall Street Journal. His work can also be found on Benzinga, ETF Daily News, ETF Trends, MarketWatch, Fox Business, and Nasdaq.com.

He currently resides in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golf and taking his black lab to the dog park. He's also an avid sports fan and likes to wager on college football and the NBA. You can also find him at the three-card poker and roulette table, even though he knows better.

Contact Todd at todd.shriber@casino.org.