Polymarket Taking Bets on Possible DraftKings Prediction Markets Acquisition

• Polymarket has a market on DraftKings potentially buying Railbird
• It calls for traders to wager on a deal being announced or not by October 31

DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) is feeling prediction markets heat and Polymarket knows it. So much so that the latter has a market on when the gaming company could make a related acquisition.

Polymarket clients have the opportunity to bet on DraftKings potentially acquiring Railbird Exchange — a smaller prediction markets player. Rumors to that effect surfaced in July, and Polymarket has offered yes/no contracts since July 15 — the day after media reports appeared — on a deal occurring by October 31, but no transaction has been agreed to as of yet.

This market will resolve to ‘Yes’ if it is announced that Railbird will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with DraftKings (DraftKings Inc.) by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to ‘No,’” according to Polymarket. “An announcement by Railbird or DraftKings will qualify for a ‘Yes’ resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition or merger actually occurs.”

Polymarket notes official information from either DraftKings or Railbird will act as the primary resolution source for the market, but added “a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.”

Traders Not Rushing to Bet on DraftKings/Railbird Deal

Though some analysts say it’s an overreaction, DraftKings stock has been under significant duress of late amid reports that football contract volume is soaring on prediction market Kalshi. Shares of the sportsbook giant tumbled 29.26% over the past month and currently reside at the lowest levels since late April.

There’s been chatter that DraftKings is close to announcing some form of prediction markets entry over the near term, but as depicted in the chart below, Polymarket traders aren’t buying it. Literally. The market has drawn less than $13K in volume and implies just a 24% that DraftKings and Railbird will announce a deal by the end of October.

Neither DraftKings nor Railbird has publicly stated they’re in talks, and it’s not clear if the latter is a willing seller.

Railbird Rumor Makes Sense — or Not

DraftKings has a history of acquisitions, including 2024 deals for Simplebet Inc. and internet lottery provider Jackpocket, so it’s not a stretch to see the company going that route to enter the prediction markets space.

Railbird’s price tag would likely be undemanding, and Crunchbase describes it as a “likely” acquisition target.

On the other hand, the concern is that DraftKings and other sportsbook operators have to tread carefully when it comes to prediction or keep those plans on ice for the time being because regulators in several states have clearly stated that prediction markets pursuits could jeopardize sports betting licenses.