As Kentucky Derby Futures Betting Reopens at Churchill Downs, Tiz the Law’s Odds Continue to Drop (VIDEO)

Posted on: June 26, 2020, 11:06h. 

Last updated on: June 30, 2020, 02:10h.

The fifth round of Kentucky Derby futures betting started at Churchill Downs on Friday, and the only horse with Triple Crown aspirations is the heavy favorite in early betting.

Kentucky Derby Futures
Ridden by Damian Lane, Cafe Pharoah cruises to a five-length victory in the Unicorn Stakes Sunday at Tokyo Racecourse. Will he follow his famous father and race in the Kentucky Derby? (Image: Japan Racing Association)

Tiz the Law started as the morning line 7-2 favorite when betting began, and by Friday evening, the Barclay Tagg-trained Belmont Stakes winner was bet down to 9-5. Last Saturday, the 3-year-old raced for the first time in nearly three months, cruising to a nearly four-length victory in New York.

While he has more than enough points to qualify for the Kentucky Derby — which is scheduled for Sept. 5 — Tagg has stated he plans to run his colt in the Travers Stakes at Saratoga Race Course in August to give his colt a final tune-up race before coming to Louisville.

Only two other horses have single-digit odds so far through betting Friday. They are Honor A.P. at 7-1 and Authentic at 9-1. Those two horses ran one-two, respectively, in the Santa Anita Derby earlier this month. But they’re going their separate ways for their next race.

John Shirreffs, the trainer for Honor A.P., told the Thoroughbred Daily News that he’s circled “in pencil” the Shared Belief Stakes at Del Mar on Aug. 1. Trainer Bob Baffert is bringing Authentic across the country, likely to run him in the Haskell Stakes on July 18 at New Jersey’s Monmouth Park.

Betting in the futures pool is available through several online racing wagering services, including TwinSpires and NYRABets, through 6 pm ET Sunday evening. As a pari-mutuel pool, final odds on each horse will be determined when the betting round ends.

A New Pharoah?

While Honor A.P. and Authentic appear to be the two most likely challengers to Tiz the Law, there’s another horse trying to make his case all the way out in Japan. And he’s definitely got the bloodline to make a case.

On Sunday, Café Pharoah overcame starting from the far post in a 16-horse field and pulled away down the stretch to a five-length victory in the Unicorn Stakes at Tokyo Racecourse (see video below). If you couldn’t tell by the name, Café Pharoah happens to be the offspring of the 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah.

Café Pharoah is now 3-for-3 in his young career and has earned enough points on the Japanese circuit of the Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifying series to earn the spot and represent the country in the Run for the Roses.

Bettors certainly seemed to have noticed. He started off Friday with 20-1 morning-line odds, and by the end of the day, he became the fourth choice so far at 10-1.

The futures pool features 22 individual horses plus two field entries, one for all unlisted colts and geldings and one for all fillies. With the fillies, you may end up with Gamine if Baffert decides to put his prized filly up against the colts. As part of the Belmont undercard Saturday, she romped to an incredible 18-3/4-length victory in the Acorn Stakes, the Belmont equivalent to the Kentucky Oaks.

The eligible horses and their morning-line odds are available here.

Analysis: Is Tiz a Good Value?

The purpose of the futures pools is to give bettors a chance to potentially lock in better odds on their Derby pick than what they might get on Derby Day itself. In the last pool, which took place April 3-5, Tiz the Law finished as the 5-1 co-favorite with the now-injured Charlatan.

For what it’s worth, if you’re looking to bet on Tiz the Law, I’d hold off until Sunday afternoon, when you can see more clearly where his odds may land. I’m not sure there’s value in getting him at a price lower than 2-1 when we’re still 10 weeks from the Derby. There’s the option to bet a future exacta as well, and if you have a second horse you like, that would certainly be worth considering.

For price comparison, currently, at Circa Sports in Las Vegas, Tiz the Law is available at +285 in fixed-odds wagering. His current fractional odds are equivalent to +180, meaning if you bet $100, you’d get $105 more in winning from Circa.

Of course, you also have to be in Vegas (or Nevada, if you already have a Circa online account) to make that bet.

Other odds of note from Circa show the pari-mutuel pool may produce better odds for Honor A.P. (currently +545 at Circa) and Authentic (+575). Café Pharoah, though, is +3000 at the Vegas book.

Finally, as a reminder with futures betting, if your pick doesn’t run in the Derby for any reason, you lose your bet.