MGM Now an Execution Story With Takeover Bid Off the Table

On volume that’s already more than triple the daily average, shares of MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM) are off more than 10% today after Barry Diller’s People Inc. (NASDAQ: PPLI) confirmed late Wednesday it withdrew its $48.30 per share takeover offer for the casino company.

Diller, whose company is by far the largest MGM shareholder, said unidentified complexities hindered the effort to take the gaming company private. For its part, MGM’s board said it’s “excited to continue to lead MGM Resorts as a standalone company,” according to a statement from Chairman Paul Salem. Now that the deal is off the table, analysts believe MGM is now an execution story.

In a note to clients today, Jefferies analyst David Katz acknowledges that while MGM owns a “compelling collection of gaming, digital, and international assets,” the company must show investors it’s being disciplined with capital, that things are improving in Las Vegas, articulate signs of progress in digital gaming and the ability to monetize non-core assets.

He rates shares of MGM “hold” with a $45 price target.

MGM Stock Deeply Undervalued

It’s not surprising that shares of MGM tumbled on news of the withdrawn acquisition offer and with the stock now trading at its lowest levels since February, but analysts believe the pullback is a buying opportunity and that the stock is now deeply undervalued.

Using the $31 per share Tilman Fertitta is paying to take Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ: CZR) private as a template, Texas Capital analyst David Bain says MGM is worth more than the roughly $34 handle it sports at this writing.

He adds that the $53 estimate does not include $9 in per share value for MGM Osaka and that he expects the Bellagio operator could be “aggressive” in repurchasing its shares at current levels.

Examining MGM Catalysts

While the People takeover is no longer a viable catalyst for MGM shares, there are other potential sparks that could lift the stock. The primary one is evidence that the Las Vegas Strip is emerging from its slump. Katz points out that a sale of MGM Springfield, which has been widely discussed, would “simplify” the operator’s portfolio while generating cash for debt reduction and share buybacks.

Bain says a “potential unlocking of BetMGM value” — another topic that’s been frequently discussed ––could be additive for MGM shares. It remains to be seen if MGM and Entain, which are 50/50 partners on BetMGM, can reach a win/win deal that effectively monetizes the online betting entity.

Both analysts concur that the opening of MGM Osaka, expected in autumn 2030, could boost the stock.