Las Vegas Casino Operator Earnings Unlikely to Thrill

Fourth-quarter earnings season is in full swing and when Las Vegas casino operators start reporting this month, investors shouldn’t expect much in the way of big upside surprises.

In a note to clients today, Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon said that over the past month, fourth-quarter earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) estimates on the major Strip operators trended lower. He notes the consensus EBITDA forecast for MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM) — the largest Strip operator — declined 2%.

Overall, we think Vegas looks less attractive than this time last year given negative industry/company growth in 2024 and our expectations for this to continue in 2025, particularly 1Q25,” observes the analyst.

He adds that the consensus fourth-quarter EBITDA estimates on Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ: CZR) and Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN) fell 1% and 8%, respectively, over the past month.

Some Good News on Las Vegas Casino Operator Earnings

If there’s a silver lining for Caesars, MGM, Wynn, and other operators with Strip casino exposure, it’s that the specter of weaker fourth-quarter earnings and revenue is likely already priced into the stocks.

“December results effected a 4Q Strip GGR decline of 3% year-over-year (YoY), which was an improvement from a 7% YoY decline in 3Q24. This compares to the broader US Regional casino same-store growth of -2% YoY in December and +1% YoY for 4Q24,” adds Beynon.

Revenue per available room (RevPAR), one of the key non-gaming metrics applied to Las Vegas casino operators, is estimated to have declined 8% during the last three months of 2024.

MGM and Caesars depend on the Strip for 47% and 45% of their sales, respectively. For Wynn, that percentage is 23% owing to the operator’s Macau exposure.

Las Vegas Locals Segment Steady

As is the case with Strip-heavy rivals, operators of Las Vegas locals gaming venues are likely to report in-line fourth-quarter results, according to Beynon. The publicly traded companies in that space are Boyd Gaming (NYSE: BYD), Golden Entertainment (NASDAQ: GDEN) and Red Rock Resorts (NASDAQ: RRR).

“As a reminder, (Red Rock’s) Durango opened December 5, 2023, which should make the 4Q comp a bit easier for BYD. Nevertheless, we anticipate BYD’s outperformance to come principally from its Midwest & South segment,” notes the analyst. “For RRR, we think much of the call will be focused on the next phase of Durango, which management expects to cause $23 million of disruption headwinds in 2025.”

Specific to Strat operator Golden, there’s been increasing chatter that the company could move to monetize some of its real estate holdings this year as avenue for creating shareholder value and its earnings report could be an opportunity to provide color on those plans.