Kalshi Yanks Charlie Kirk Bets, Polymarket Debuts US Civil War Market

• Prediction markets respond to death of conservative activist
• Kalshi pulls markets related to Kirk’s political future
• Polymarket launches trading on possibility of another civil war

Kalshi responded to the death of conservative activist and commentator Charlie Kirk by pulling betting markets related to the pundit’s political future.

The prediction market operator was offering a yes/no wager on whether or not Kirk would run for political office, but it was yanked after he assassinated at a Utah college Wednesday. Other markets pertaining to Kirk, including whether or not he’d debate Nick Fuentes and the number of appearances his likeness would make on “South Park” were also withdrawn by Kalshi.

We are deeply saddened by today’s tragic news about Charlie Kirk,” according to a message sent to Kalshi customers.

The company said any bets placed after the time of Kirk’s death will be voided and all related wagers will be refunded to clients.

Trump Ties to Prediction Markets

Polymarket and Kalshi, the two largest prediction market operators, have well-documented ties to the Trump Administration. Donald Trump Jr., the president’s oldest son, is an advisor to both derivatives exchanges. He joined Kalshi in January and last month, his venture capital firm made an investment in Polymarket as also joined that company in an advisory capacity.

Kirk, known in part for his visits to college campuses and debating with often hostile crowds there, was seen as instrumental in bringing more young voters, many of whom are bettors and prediction market users, over to Trump’s side in the 2024 presidential election.

“The Great, and even Legendary, Charlie Kirk, is dead,” said the president in a Wednesday post on Truth Social. “No one understood or had the Heart of the Youth in the United States of America better than Charlie. He was loved and admired by ALL, especially me, and now, he is no longer with us. Melania and my Sympathies go out to his beautiful wife Erika, and family. Charlie, we love you!”

Polymarket Offers Bold, Ominous Bet

Never one to shy away from offering controversial markets, Polymarket posted a still open bet on the possibility of the US falling into another civil by the end of this year. As of this writing, the contract has volume of $54,348 96.6% of that activity directed to the “no” side of the bet.

“This market will resolve to ‘Yes’ if the United States of America enters a state of civil war by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET,” according to the operator.

The comments section includes remarks on interest in the bet if 2026 was the given timeline and theories that the market is currently underpriced.