Joey Chestnut is Top Dog for Nathan’s July 4 Contest, Odds Unappetizing
Posted on: July 3, 2025, 12:37h.
Last updated on: July 3, 2025, 10:17h.
- No surprise here: Joey Chestnut is the betting favorite for the July 4 Nathan’s Famous hot dog eating contest
- Chestnut sat out last year’s event due to a conflict of interest
- Chestnut’s numbers have declined in recent years
There has been no surer bet in sports since Joey Chestnut exploded onto the world competitive eating scene with his overtime victory over Takeru Kobayashi at the 2007 Nathan’s Famous Fourth of July Hot Dog Eating Contest. Oddsmakers say the 41-year-old is nearly a sure thing once again for this Friday’s 10-minute hot dog-eating showdown.
New Jersey gaming regulators have signed off on allowing the hot dog-eating chowdown to be included in oddsmakers’ lines for the fifth consecutive year. After sportsbook requests were denied in 2019 by the New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement (NJDGE), the event governed by Major League Eating was deemed okay for legal sports betting.
The Nathan’s spectacle takes place each July 4 from Coney Island, the seaside Brooklyn community where the Nathan’s brand originated. The contest will go down just steps from where developers hope to soon build a $3.4 billion entertainment and gaming complex called The Coney.
Chestnut Heavily Favored
BetMGM, one such sportsbook in New Jersey that’s taking action on the Nathan’s hot dog eating competition, has Chestnut at -2500 (1/25) to win. The line implies a likelihood of 96.15%. FanDuel has him more attractive at -1350.
The odds aren’t surprising. Chestnut won the Nathan’s event every year from 2007 through 2023, with a lone loss coming in 2015 when Matt Stonie upset the eight-time defending champion by two dogs. Chestnut didn’t participate last year due to a conflict of interest.
Chestnut has been all but easy money at Nathan’s, though bettors must risk substantial sums to make much of a return. At -2500, a $100 bet nets a measly $4 — not even enough for a McDonald’s breakfast. A $2,500 wager is required to make a $100 profit — a bit rich for most casual bettors and Nathan’s fans.
A more popular proposition this year might be defending champion Patrick Bertoletti, aka Deep Dish. The competitive eater from Chicago holds the world record for 16″ pizza slices with 47 slices in 10 minutes, ice cream (1.75 pounds in eight minutes), and roast turkey (4lbs 12.8 oz. in 12 minutes).
With Chestnut absent a year ago, Bertoletti claimed the Nathan’s title with 58 hot dogs and buns. Bertoletti has the second-shortest odds for Friday at +1600. A $100 bet would net $1,600 should Deep Dish overcome the deep odds.
On the women’s side, 10-time winner Miki Sudo, who holds the women’s record with 51 dogs and buns set last year, is the heavy favorite, though sportsbooks aren’t taking bets on the women’s field.
The men’s and women’s champions each receive $10K.
Chestnut Falloff?
Some eating insiders (yes, they exist) believe Chestnut’s reign is approaching its end. Since setting the all-time record with 76 Nathan’s hot dogs and buns consumed during the 2021 event, Chestnut’s numbers declined severely to 63 in 2022 and to 62 in 2023.
Before 2022, Chestnut had eaten at least 70 dogs and buns each year since 2016. DraftKings has Chestnut’s over/under at 71.5 dogs and buns, making the under rather appetizing.
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