Hollywood Studios Ban Production Crews From Betting on Prediction Markets

From major political outcomes to the latest Hollywood rumors, prediction markets now offer trading on almost everything. But as the online platforms explode in popularity, a growing number of industries are cautioning insiders against trading non-public information.

The entertainment industry is the latest to sound the alarm on prediction markets. The Hollywood Reporter says employees at studios and production companies have been issued formal warnings about prediction markets, with workers who violate a company’s terms jeopardizing their employment.

In February, a video editor working for MrBeast was fired after he profited $5,000 by trading shares on content related to the YouTuber. The trades were flagged as suspicious for being statistically anomalous.

Prediction markets regarding who would be cast as the next James Bond were yanked after sharp money on actor Callum Turner poured in, despite most Hollywood rumblings suggesting Jack Lowden as the favorite. Integrity monitors raised concerns that there had been a leak, though the next James Bond has yet to be confirmed.

Hollywood Prediction Markets

Prediction markets allow traders to stake money on various entertainment events. After sports and elections, cultural markets are among the most traded contracts.

Millions of dollars have been traded on not only the next James Bond but also which film will win the Oscar for Best Picture (“The Odyssey” favored at 60 cents), who will win Season 35 of “Dancing with the Stars” (Ezra French, 58 cents), and if “The Angry Birds Movie 3” will obtain a Rotten Tomatoes score above 50 (Yes, 59 cents).

There are markets for whether President Donald Trump will appear on “Saturday Night Live” (Yes, 11 cents), whether Elon Musk will make a cameo in the next Superman film (Yes, 5 cents), and if Joe Rogan will join “60 Minutes” as a correspondent (Yes, 3 cents).

While television networks and movie studios ban insiders from leveraging confidential knowledge on prediction markets, experts warn enforcement is virtually unenforceable.

Mitts says prediction markets work proactively to root out insider trading, as it’s in the business’s best interest.

“If you become known as the platform where all the insiders trade, then your average customer won’t want to trade there,” Mitts said.

Insider Trading Estimates

Estimates vary regarding insider trading on prediction markets regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Between February 2024 and February 2026, Mitts’ research pinpointed 210,000 suspicious bets that profited $143 million. The accounts reported a win rate of 70%, which Mitt said was “well in excess of chance.”

Prediction market trading has grown exponentially since late 2025, when platforms began offering sports.