NFL insider Jason La Canfora: Why the 49ers look set for a long season

Key Points

• One GM told me: “I think they’re in trouble (this season)”.
• An NFL advance scout said: “Shanahan is one of the best with the headset on… but he can’t overcome that roster.”
• On Brock Purdy, another long-time NFL GM told me: “On pure ability, he’s closer to a backup than a top-10 guy.”

There was cause for concern about the San Francisco 49ers this season before their head coach was at fault in a controversial car accident that limited his ability to fully function early in training camp and before their run of significant injuries began anew.

Many executives around the league have maintained privately that this franchise’s Lombardi Trophy window was closing following their last Super Bowl defeat – even with them signing quarterback Brock Purdy to a massive contract extension. 

Nothing that has happened since then (roster atrophy, injury-prone players remaining injured, recent drafts failing, having the worst QB pressure rate in the NFL last year, the rise of the Seahawks and Rams in the NFC West) has changed those opinions, though they did get back to the playoffs in 2025.

This despite an offense that could not run the ball with any explosion (unfathomable in Shanahan’s proven outside zone scheme), with the offensive line in decline and dynamic running back Christian McCaffrey aging and tight end George Kittle (a monster blocker) hurt again. 

Add to that, 2024 first-round pick Ricky Pearsall couldn’t get on the field or stay on the field and now the receiver is already out for the upcoming season, while Kittle tries to come back from a torn Achilles in January and injury-riddled pass rusher Nick Bosa comes off a lost season and tries to stay healthy later in his career in ways his older brother, Joey, never could.

“I think they’re in trouble,” one GM said to me about the 49ers this offseason even before Kyle Shanahan’s accident and Pearsall’s diagnosis. “The ‘window’ stuff gets thrown around too much by you guys (in the media) … That roster looks old. They haven’t drafted well.”

It remains to be seen what comes of the Shanahan situation, with the local authorities trying to keep evidence and details of the crash under wraps. The 49ers remain at odds with former star receiver Brandon Aiyuk, who received a huge contract extension from them before going AWOL on his recovery from an injury, and he won’t be playing for them ever again. Hall of Fame left tackle Trent Williams has been remarkably healthy in recent years but is nearing the end of his career and has a deep history of injury issues.

So what did the 49ers do in the face of this?

They brought back Deebo Samuel, a receiver whose hefty contract they couldn’t wait to get out from under a year ago, whose body was breaking down in San Francisco and who didn’t make much of an impact in Washington last season and who seems much older than 30. They had another draft in which they seemed to revel in players other evaluators didn’t fancy nearly as much, which hasn’t been working out for them. Hmm.

“Speed wins in this league, that’s not a secret,” said one NFL advance scout who has watched the 49ers incredibly closely over the years. “You can’t scheme it up … Kyle is one of the best with the headset on (calling plays on offense), but he can’t overcome that roster.”

With all other options failing, and even with McCaffrey, 30, entering the season less than fully healthy, Shanahan rode him relentlessly throughout a middling season. McCaffrey’s body began breaking down in Carolina years ago – making him available in trade in the first place – yet he led the NFL with 413 touches last season, 44 more than anyone else (like playing two more games than any other skill player).

For reference, that is 10 more touches than ever before for McCaffrey, who had 403 in his MVP season of 2019. This coming off just four games played in 2024 due to injuries. Assuming he holds up under anything in the vicinity of that workload again this season would be incredibly naive, but this offense lacks other twitchy playmakers, and Shanahan did appear quite desperate last season.

If this is indeed a far more pedestrian than not offensive roster, without individual playmakers who elevate the level of others, no shortage of NFL coaches and execs and coaches believe that could be problematic for Purdy. Fair or not, he is seen by many as a product of Shanahan’s elite coaching and scheme, whose situation was so quarterback friendly it elevated his production and payday.

“You know he’s never been a franchise quarterback for me,” said one longtime NFL general manager. “On pure ability, he’s closer to a back-up than a top-10 guy.”

On top of all of this, it’s fair to wonder if San Francisco will have even bigger problems on the defensive side of the ball, where there has also been plenty of attrition since their loss to the Chiefs in the Super Bowl and where they are short on playmakers too. Seems like an awful lot of riding on Bosa, who has been in the league seven years but had two years virtually wiped out due to injury and played just three times a year ago before he tore his ACL.

This defense has been better in recent iterations with Robert Saleh running it, but he’s now left again to coach the Titans after leaving previously to coach the Jets. They face the Rams in Australia (gulp) to open the season and also see the Broncos and Seahawks within the first five weeks, so getting off to a fast start seems unlikely.

Color me highly skeptical they sniff last year’s total of 12 wins, or return to the postseason.