US Election Betting Markets Set to Break Records, But Who Just Put $5 Million on Trump?
Posted on: November 3, 2020, 06:36h.
Last updated on: November 3, 2020, 09:18h.
The 2020 US election is expected to break records as the biggest political betting event of all time. But reports of a $5 million bet on Donald Trump suggest someone has smashed the record for the most money ever staked on a political outcome in a single bet, too.
![election betting](https://www.casino.org/news/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/trump.jpg)
The bet was placed this week at a “private bookmaker” based in Curacao, according to sources who spoke to the UK tabloid The Sun. The identity of the bettor is unknown, other than that he is said to be a British ex-offshore banker. The mystery gambler stands to win $15 million if his bet is successful.
In the regulated markets, Betfair said Tuesday that one customer had placed a £1 million ($1.3 million) bet on Joe Biden and expects to win £1.54 million ($2 million) if his bet comes in.
British bookie Ladbrokes Coral has estimated that £1 billion ($1.3 billion) could be bet globally on the presidential race.
How Do Bookies Predict Elections?
Political betting generally is not a big market for bookmakers in comparison with sports events. Betting companies’ marketing people love them, though, because these markets provide great fodder for news articles like this one, gifting operators some free publicity.
This election appears to be the exception. The $1 billion figure, if accurate, would put the election on the same level as an English Premier League match. Or, for more perspective, $6.8 billion is estimated to have been bet on the last Super Bowl.
Political betting is illegal in the US because of concerns it could undermine the integrity of elections. But in jurisdictions like the UK, Ireland, and Australia, there are no such qualms.
It’s a pity, because betting markets usually prove to be more accurate predictors of political outcomes than the notoriously unreliable polls. Maybe that’s because bettors who have money riding on an election are unlikely to vote against their own vested interests.
Meanwhile, poll respondents don’t always tell the truth. That’s often because they are too embarrassed to admit that they haven’t got around to registering to vote, or because they are more interested in giving the answer they think the pollster wants to hear rather than their own opinion.
More Bets on Biden
In the biggest political betting market, the UK, Biden is ahead. The British betting exchange Smarkets gives the Democrat a 65 percent chance of winning, while Trump is just 34 percent.
These results should be taken with a pinch of salt, because Brits have different political sensibilities than Americans, and crucially, they do not get to vote in the US election.
It’s more informative to look at the biggest US-facing offshore sportsbook, which takes bets from voting American citizens, albeit via the black market. This operator has Biden as an even bigger favorite, at -700 favorite to Trump’s +500. That represents an implied probability of 87 percent for a Biden win.
Of course, the polls and betting markets failed to predict a Trump victory in 2016, and they may do so again.
Related News Articles
Most Popular
LOST VEGAS: The Foster Brooks Robot at MGM Grand
Bally’s Sets Date for Tropicana Las Vegas Implosion & Party
Most Commented
-
VEGAS MYTHS RE-BUSTED: You Don’t Have to Pay Resort Fees
August 2, 2024 — 16 Comments— -
VEGAS MYTHS RE-BUSTED: Elvis Was a Straight-Up Racist
August 9, 2024 — 11 Comments— -
ANTI-SOCIAL BEHAVIOR: Vegas Casino Buffet Stunt in Poor Taste Goes Viral
August 16, 2024 — 7 Comments— -
VEGAS MYTHS RE-BUSTED: The Strip Tried Appealing to Families and Failed
August 23, 2024 — 7 Comments—
Last Comment ( 1 )
I just got cheated out of my winning at Yukon Gold Casino. I opened up the site on my computer and got 150 free spins. I was asked to deposit my money. I did and got a receipt from the bank for doing so. I tried to get back on the site, but it took me at least 2 hours. My $10 dollars was there. I did not see any free spins so I played my $10.00 and still no free spins. I tried everything to get in touch with Yukon Gold about this. Finally I got the chat site. I explained it all to them and they didn't have a clue what was going on. I finally gave up and tried my hand at it again. Every time I opened up my computer all I got was a wheel to spin for a chance for free spins. I spun and got 100 free spins and a chance to spin again. I spun again and won $475.00. again It asked me to make my deposit. I followed their instructions and e-transferred my money. I then tried to get back into the casino with no avail. I spent another 2 hour before I could find a chat with them. Again they didn't have a clue what was going on. After arguing with them for a bout an hour I just gave up. I told them to send my money back to me and gave them my e-mail address and my account from which it came out of. They told me I didn't have any winnings and I told them I was not going to spend my money with them when they already screwed me out of my first free spins. I am out of 250 free spins, $475.00 won on my second free spin plus my $10.00 last deposit. NOTE: Every time I opened up their site I could never find anywhere to use my account number. I always had to sign in and open a new account. I now have about 8 - 10 accounts under the same name and email address. I had to keep closing up the site or I would have about 40 or so accounts. If anyone out there can help me find how to get back my money, my winnings and my deposit fee I would be very grateful. I have tried to contact our Ontario OLG ,but to no avail. I am tone deaf so I can only use the internet.