NFL Season Could Stoke Upside for Betting Stocks, Albeit Temporary

Posted on: September 6, 2023, 04:52h. 

Last updated on: September 6, 2023, 06:53h.

Todd Shriber @etfgodfather Read More

Expertise: Financial, Gaming Business, Mergers and Acquisitions.

The 2023 NFL campaign commences Thursday when the Detroit Lions travel to Kansas City to take on the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs. That coupled with college football entering its second full week of action could mark the start of some favorable seasonality for select betting stocks.

FanDuel parent Flutter Entertainment (OTC: PDYPY) and DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) — the two largest online sportsbook operators in the US – are chief among them. Football is the most wagered on sports in the US, indicating that there can be tangible seasonal benefits for betting stocks, but some analysts say those perks can be fleeting.

Online gaming stocks have a history of rallying into and on the start of NFL Season, though less so after,” according to a recent report by Bank of America.

On the other hand, it’s possible that any NFL-fueled gains accrued by sports wagering equities could prove stickier than expected because the third and fourth quarters are chock full of sports activity. For example, the NBA and NHL seasons start next month, with college basketball following in November.

Additionally, sportsbook operators will benefit from Kentucky joining the live and legal mobile sports betting party this year.

Among Betting Stocks, Flutter, DraftKings Could Lead

In what could prove to be good news for FanDuel, DraftKings and their peers, a recent survey by investment bank Jefferies indicated that 44% of those polled had placed a sports bet over the prior 12 months, up from 37% in January.

Specific to FanDuel and DraftKings, which combine for roughly three-quarters of US online sports betting market share, there’s good news in the survey in the form of bettors’ devotion to their established relationships with sportsbook operators.

Respondents continued to demonstrate loyalty, as 89% of respondents indicated they are likely/very likely to continue betting with their current accounts, versus 83% in January” observed Jefferies. “It is also worth noting that bettors are more likely to keep more than one sportsbook account with 33% of the respondents indicating intent to maintain just one account (40% prior) and 39% intend to have two (37% prior), while those intending to keep three accounts grew to 20% from 15% in the last survey.”

The bank noted DraftKings and Flutter as its top two ideas. Dublin-based Flutter is expected to list its shares in New York prior to the end of this year.

Other Analyst Takes on Betting Stocks

Needham analyst Bernie McTernan is bullish on DraftKings and sports wagering data provider Genius Sports (NYSE: GENI). The analyst noted DraftKings’ upcoming investor day could be a catalyst for the shares as the company could take the opportunity to highlight its efforts to grow will maintaining a focus on profitability.

As for Genius, some analysts believe the stock could benefit from bettors’ increasing preference for in-game or live wagers over pregame investments.

The company counts sportsbook operators and several major sports leagues, including the NFL, among its clients.