President Joe Biden Says He’ll Run in 2024, Political Bettors Not Buying It

Posted on: November 24, 2021, 11:42h. 

Last updated on: November 24, 2021, 01:17h.

President Joe Biden is reassuring his supporters that he will indeed run for a second term in 2024.

Joe Biden odds 2024 president Trump
President Joe Biden walks outside the White House on September 21, 2021. In three years, political bettors aren’t sure if the now 79-year-old will seek a second term as commander-in-chief. (Image: Getty)

Amid declining job approval numbers, Biden, who turned 79 years old this week, is trying to provide a sense of calm among the Democratic Party members. Reports have surfaced in DC that there is much friction between the president and his right-hand woman, VP Kamala Harris, and she, too, is seeing her favorability numbers drop.

White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki was asked recently whether her boss indeed is planning a 2024 campaign.

“He is. That’s his intention,” Psaki answered.

Biden confirmed that he plans to serve eight — not four — years as president to a small group of supporters during a virtual fundraiser earlier this month. But political bettors aren’t necessarily sold on another Biden presidential run.

“Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?” has Biden’s shares leading at 40 cents on PredictIt. While he’s a considerable front-runner, Harris next at a distant 25 cents, Biden’s shares have not increased in value despite the White House saying he will run.

Lackluster Momentum

UK bookmakers are legally allowed to offer odds on political events and outcomes, something that isn’t the case in any legal US sports betting market. And overseas, bettors aren’t convinced Biden will seek another four years.

William Hill recently lengthened Biden’s odds of being the Democratic 2024 nominee. The president is now at 9/4 to defend the Oval Office, which implies odds of only a 30.7 percent chance. The UK sportsbook giant has Harris next at 2/1, and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg third at 9/1.

Prior to his 2020 election, Biden pledged to be a one-term president.

I view myself as a transition candidate,” Biden said in June of 2020. “You got to get more people on the bench that are ready to go in. ‘Put me in coach, I’m ready to play.’ “

He added, “Well, there’s a lot of people that are ready to play, women and men.”

Those comments, despite Biden now saying he will stay in the White House so long as Americans keep him there, haven’t been forgotten by political pundits. CNN Editor-at-Large Chris Cillizza opined this week that the uncertainty is because of Harris — who was once presumed the party’s 2024 nominee — and her inability to establish herself as a serious presidential contender.

“While Democrats have some time to figure it all out, having this debate in public is not a great look,” Cillizza concluded.

Nation and Bettors Divided

The Republican Party’s 2024 ticket is just as unsettled. While some in the GOP continue to support former President Donald Trump, there’s thought to be a considerable faction of Republicans who want to move forward with a new leader.

PredictIt bettors, however, say Trump is still the 2024 Republican front-runner. His shares of winning the party’s presidential ticket are the same as Biden’s — 40 cents. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is next at 26 cents.

As for winning the whole thing, PredictIt bettors are split. “Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election?” has Republican and Democratic shares divided at 50 cents each.

Could 2024 see the two oldest presidents in US history square off for a second time? The answer will come over the next two-plus years.