President Trump to Announce SCOTUS Nominee Saturday, Odds Expect Senate Vote Before Election

Posted on: September 22, 2020, 02:44h. 

Last updated on: September 22, 2020, 03:53h.

President Donald Trump says he will nominate his pick to replace the late Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg on Saturday, and bettors are forecasting a Senate confirmation vote before Election Day.

Trump Ginsburg SCOTUS odds PredictIt
President Trump will go ahead and pick a judge to replace Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. (Image: Evan Vucci/AP)

Ginsburg died September 18 at the age of 87 from complications of pancreatic cancer. With just 41 days to go before US citizens decide whether to grant Trump another four years or switch avenues and elect Democratic candidate Joe Biden, the President’s motion to nominate is certainly not without controversy.

PredictIt bettors nonetheless feel the Senate, which is controlled by Republicans with a 53-seat majority, will indeed vote to confirm Trump’s SCOTUS nomination.

“When will the Senate vote on confirmation of the next Supreme Court nominee?” has “Before November 3” the heavy favorite, that outcome’s shares trading at 70 cents. “November 3 to January 2” is next at 25 cents, “January 20 or later” at six cents, and “January 3-19” at three cents.

“I will be announcing my Supreme Court Nominee on Saturday, at the White House!” Trump tweeted today. If Trump successfully appoints Ginsburg’s successor, it would be his third SCOTUS justice, a reality that could lean the court conservative for decades to come.

Liberals Angered

Following the death of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia in February of 2016, numerous Republican senators said the next president should decide his replacement. Then-President Barack Obama nominated Merrick Garland to fill the seat in March of that year, but the GOP-controlled Senate refused to vote on his appointment.

In 2016, Republicans on the Senate Judiciary Committee — including Sens. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, Charles Grassley of Iowa, and John Cornyn and Ted Cruz of Texas, said the American people have “an exceedingly rare opportunity to decide, in a very real and concrete way, the direction the Court will take over the next generation.”

The American people should have a voice in the selection of their next Supreme Court justice. Therefore, this vacancy should not be filled until we have a new president,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said four years ago.

Those views have greatly changed, McConnell is now saying, “Americans reelected our [Senate] majority in 2016 and expanded it in 2018 because we pledged to work with President Trump and support his agenda, particularly his outstanding appointments to the federal judiciary. President Trump’s nominee will receive a vote on the floor of the United States Senate.”

Judge Barrett Favored in Bets 

The odds of Judge Amy Coney Barrett being Trump’s SCOTUS choice have greatly shortened in the days following RBG’s death. Barrett, who currently serves as a circuit judge on the US Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit, shares much of her judicial philosophy with her mentor and former boss, Justice Scalia.

Barrett’s shares on PredictIt of being nominated to the Supreme Court are trading at 79 cents. The only other name on the political exchange with a meaningful value is Barbara Lagoa, who is a circuit court judge for the Eleventh Circuit.

Barrett’s shares have surged from 51 cents at the time of Ginsburg’s death.