President Trump Attacks Latest Polls Showing Biden Ahead, 2020 Odds Tell Different Story
Posted on: April 30, 2020, 09:41h.
Last updated on: May 1, 2020, 09:15h.
President Donald Trump is lambasting the latest polling data showing former VP Joe Biden with a substantial lead in several key swing states in the upcoming 2020 presidential election.
The Real Clear Politics polling average for the general election between Trump and presumptive Democratic Party nominee Biden has the former vice president with a 6.3-point lead.
In the seven most critical battleground states, Biden is the RCP polling leader in six. The 77-year-old is leading in Wisconsin (+2.7), Florida (+3.2), Michigan (+5.5), Pennsylvania (+6.7), Arizona (+4.4), and Minnesota (+12). In the other key state – North Carolina – Trump has a 0.3-point lead.
FAKE POLLING, just like 2016 (but worse)!” Trump tweeted today.
The president added later, “We can’t let the Fake News, and their partner, the Radical Left, Do Nothing Democrats, get away with stealing the Election. They tried that in 2016. How did that work out?”
Ironically, Trump later retweeted a Gallup Poll showing an increase in his approval rating (49 percent).
Odds Suggest Otherwise
In 2016, the pollsters got it wrong. Heading into November 8, 2016, the RCP average of 10 polls conducted the week of the election gave Hillary Clinton a 2.1-point advantage. Only one poll – the LA Times/USC Tracking poll – got it right, that poll giving Trump a three-point lead in winning the presidency.
Post-election analysts raised the question as to whether political betting markets might be a better indicator of an election outcome than polling. Political pundits such as John Stossel – who now operates ElectionBettingOdds.com – said there’s more credence in someone putting money on an outcome over someone answering who they want to win.
That said, the odds were wrong in 2016, too. On election night, Clinton was the strong favorite at -700 (implied odds of 87.5 percent, a $100 winning bet netting just $14.29). Trump was at +400 (implied odds of 17.39 percent, $100 winning $475).
Stossel said based on 2020 odds overseas at UK books, and the online political betting market PredictIt, Trump currently has a 48.1 percent chance of being reelected. Biden is at 42.7 percent, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) 2.1 percent, and Clinton 2.0 percent.
On PredictIt, Trump’s shares of winning in November are at 49 cents. Biden is next at 43 cents, and Clinton third at four cents. UK bookmakers have Trump favored at -110, and Biden the underdog at +110.
Odds Over Polls?
Stossel points to four points as to why he believes betting markets are more reliable than polls. They are:
- Bettors consider important factors besides polls
- Unlike pundits, bettors put their money where their mouths are
- People involved in the event might trade before news breaks publicly
- The “wisdom of crowds”
Politics, of course, is not an exact science. Though he despises the polling, Trump is preparing to launch a 2020 ad blitz following the data. According to Politico, the first wave of ads will hype the President’s response to the coronavirus, and the second round attacking Biden.
Regarding the pandemic spots, Trump campaign spokesman said the messages will show Americans “that President Trump has been in command and leading the nation through the coronavirus crisis.”
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