PredictIt Presidential Betting Market Hits Record 115M Trades, Biden Extends Lead

Posted on: October 29, 2020, 02:31h. 

Last updated on: October 29, 2020, 03:49h.

Online betting exchange PredictIt says more than 115 million shares have been traded on the 2020 presidential election outcome, an all-time record for the site.

PredictIt 2020 odds Trump Biden
No betting market on PredictIt has attracted as much activity as the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden. (Image: PredictIt/Getty/

The news follows Betfair, a political betting exchange based in London, reporting that over $260 million has been wagered on either President Donald Trump or Democratic challenger Joe Biden. The 2020 race, Betfair says, is its largest single betting event ever.

While PredictIt does not disclose specific dollar amounts wagered on its site, the platform told that the Trump vs. Biden showdown is “the biggest market we have ever had.”

One hundred and fifteen million shares traded in its lifetime, with almost 31 million in outstanding shares. Not to mention the one and a half million comments on the board,” said Will Jennings, PredictIt’s head of public engagement.

Biden’s shares of winning on November 3 are trading at 67 cents. That’s up three cents over the past 24 hours. Trump is at a distant 39 cents.

Market (Somewhat) Closed

On October 19, PredictIt told new bettors trying to buy-in to the 2020 presidential election market that the number of traders has been capped.

“Note to traders: As of this time, the contracts for Joe Biden and Donald Trump have reached the limit for the allowable number of traders,” a notice on the market explains.

So, what about those 31 million outstanding shares? Jennings clarifies that there is a cap of 5,000 concurrent traders in each market.

“For several of our bigger markets, we have recently hit that capacity. We’re now seeing liquidity tip over into other markets across the site. Traders are settling in for Election Day,” Jennings stated.

Those who want to buy shares of the presidential market need a little bit of luck. For a new trader to be welcomed in, one of the 5,000 traders who has already bought shares would need to sell and exit. “We’re like a stadium at capacity — one out, one allowed in,” Jennings declared.

Those who are in the market continue to trade heavily. Just this week, more than one million shares were bought and sold. That averages out to a little more than 200 shares per PredictIt trader in the presidential market.

Latest Odds

We’re just five days from Election Day, though more than 75 million Americans have already cast their vote.

Sportsbooks in the US cannot take bets on the 2020 outcome. But William Hill in the UK has Biden the heavy favorite at 11/20 (64.52 percent). Trump is at 6/4 (40 percent).

Some late money came last week on the President successfully winning a second term, which momentarily forced books to adjust their lines in Trump’s favor. However, those lines have since shortened on the former VP becoming president.

The Real Clear Politics polling average has Biden with a 7.4-point lead.