Prediction Market ‘Combos’ Bigger Losers for Bettors Than Sportsbook Parlays
Posted on: May 28, 2026, 02:37h.
Last updated on: May 28, 2026, 02:37h.
- Prediction market combos lead to larger losses for retail bettors than the parlays offered by traditional sportsbooks
- Citizens Research estimates retail market participants lose 45% more wallet with combos compared to sports betting parlays
- Bettors using both prediction markets and sportsbook generating significantly worse return on investment (ROI)
Call them combos or parlays, but whatever the vernacular used for multi-leg bets on prediction markets, retail bettors and traders are losing more than they do with old guard sportsbooks.
Leveraging Juice Reel data, Citizens Equity Research analyzed retail bettors’ median return on investment (ROI) from October 2025 through today, discovering that combos — prediction market speak for parlays — lead to steeper losses than sportsbook parlays.
The data suggest that combo ROI is -18%, or retail users are losing 45% more wallet compared to parlays at a -12% ROI,” notes Citizens analyst Jordan Bender. “Additionally, the cohort of customers linking both prediction market apps and legal sportsbooks generate worse ROI compared to users using only one vertical, with an ROI of -9% for parlays and -23% for combos over the same period.”
Although prediction market operators are attempting to reduce dependence on sports derivatives, combos are viewed as significant contributors to volume growth on yes/no exchanges.
Why Retail Fails with Prediction Market Combos
Recreational bettors and traders are up against it with multi-leg sports wagers on prediction markets because those platforms are attracting trading desks with deep technological expertise in addition to well-heeled professional bettors.
Sharp bettors — the scant percentage of sports bettors that are consistently profitable and do this for a living — are departing sportsbooks because gaming companies often limit them or refuse their business outright. One of the reasons for that is a traditional sports wager is comprised of the bettor against the house. That’s not the case in prediction markets where market participants are trading against each other, not the platform itself.
That’s fine for market makers, trading desks and professional bettors, but it can also lead to “head hunting” retail bettors with combos often serving as signs of less sophisticated participation.
“Combos go through an RFQ (request for quote) process, allowing takers to identify makers, effectively enabling sharper participants to target more recreational bettors or filter out toxic/sharp flow,” adds Bender. “Put differently, customers receive dynamic pricing, but market makers can identify the counterparties they are trading with, creating an advantage because they can avoid trading against superior competition.”
Combo, Parlay Economics
Parlays have long been vital to the sports betting industry’s economics and that remains the case today. Exotic markets and compelling bettors to add more legs pushed sportsbook parlay margins to 19% in April, up from 17% in 2023 and higher than Kalshi’s implied combo margin of 14.7%, notes Bender.
The analyst says that while Kalshi’s combo turnover reached 22% last month, up from 13% in January, entrenched prediction market operators face competition from sportsbooks entering the event contracts space as well as the specter of retail traders awakening to the unfavorable economics associated with combos.
“We believe the increasing combo mix will accelerate churn given the unfavorable customer wallet economics, while increasing marketing investment from the newer exchanges (FanDuel and DraftKings could invest $600 million this year) will begin to take market share from incumbent exchanges,” concludes the analyst.
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