NFL Demands Tighter Prediction Market Oversight Before Signing Commercial Deals

The NFL is keeping prediction market platforms at arm’s length, holding off on official commercial deals until operators address strict game-integrity and regulatory concerns.

In a recent interview with CNBC, Commissioner Roger Goodell said the league is continuing dialogue with some prediction markets with a focus on some items those companies can accomplish to potentially establish a relationship with the most valuable U.S. sports league in the future.

While the NHL was quick to establish partnerships with the two largest prediction markets with Major League Baseball (MLB) and several other leagues following suit, the NFL and the NBA have thus far been reluctant to embrace prediction markets, citing gaming integrity concerns.

NFL Wants Solid Regulations

Following the 2018 repeal of the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA), the NFL was quick to establish deals with gaming companies, but those corporations are regulated by the states in which they do business.

Prediction markets are regulated at the federal level by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), so those companies aren’t operating unchecked, but it appears as though the NFL wants stronger oversight of the young industry.

“We’ve been really clear about that, and it’s not a surprise, I think, for anybody. We think that there needs to be stronger regulations into the prediction markets,” Goodell told CNBC. “We want to see that to protect the integrity of our game. We want to make sure we’re protecting the consumers that are on those platforms for the NFL.”

With annual revenue of $23 billion and growing, and an average estimated franchise value of as much as $10.36 billion, the NFL has the economic luxury of slow-playing prediction market relationships.

Prediction Markets Should Remove Questionable NFL Contracts

To gain traction with the NFL, operators will likely need to eliminate contracts the league considers vulnerable to manipulation or insider trading—such as derivatives tied to player injuries or referee calls.

Under current CFTC rules, prediction platforms can self-certify event contracts, allowing derivatives to go live unless federal regulators intervene.

However, some exchanges are moving voluntarily to align with league expectations; last week, Novig announced it will not offer contracts tied to officiating or easily manipulable, knowable-in-advance NFL outcomes.