NFL Trends: Cincinnati Bengals, NY Giants Share Best Record Against Spread
Posted on: December 7, 2022, 11:16h.
Last updated on: December 7, 2022, 01:10h.
Heading into Week 14 of the NFL season, the Cincinnati Bengals and New York Giants both have a 9-3 against the spread (ATS) record as the best betting teams in the league.
The Detroit Lions, Dallas Cowboys, and Tennessee Titans have also been profitable for bettors this season, covering 67% of their games with an 8-4 ATS record.
|New York Giants||9-3|
Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the worst record trying to cover the point spread this season. The Bucs lead the lackluster NFC South with a 6-6 record and are only 3-8-1 ATS, covering just 27% of their games. The Los Angeles Rams have the second-worst betting record in the NFL this season. The Rams are 3-9 overall and have covered only 30% of their games with a 3-7-2 ATS record.
Bengals (8-4 SU, 9-3 ATS)
The Bengals faced a difficult schedule this season as the reigning AFC Champions. They started 0-2 and lost close games against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 1, and to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 2. Both losses were decided by three points.
The Bengals sunk to 2-3 after a 2-point loss against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 5. Since then, the Bengals have been on fire, winning six out of their next seven games. They’re riding high on a four-game winning streak, which included a huge victory against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 13.
In a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship, the final score was exactly the same, and Joe Burrow led the Bengals to an uplifting victory over Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase returned to the lineup and caught seven passes for 97 yards after missing four games with a hip injury.
Betting-wise, the Bengals have a 9-1 ATS record in their last 10 games, including a 4-0 ATS clip since they were upset by the Cleveland Browns in Week 8.
The Bengals are a -6 favorite in a rematch against the Cleveland Browns in Week 14. These two AFC North foes typically play close games, but the Browns seem to have Burrow’s number. Quarterback Deshaun Watson made his season debut for the Browns in Week 13, but this is the first time fans get to watch Burrow and Watson square off as division rivals.
The Bengals have two more road games against the Tampa Bay Bucs (Week 15) and New England Patriots (Week 16). They have three more home games against the Browns (Week 14), Buffalo Bills (Week 17), and Baltimore Ravens (Week 18).
Giants (7-4-1 SU, 9-3 ATS)
While the Bengals are a hot team, the Giants have been somewhat cold since a loss against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 8. The Giants were one of the big surprises at the start of the season when they posted a 6-1 record. However, they won just once in their last five games with a 1-3-1 record, which included a tie against the Washington Commanders in Week 13.
According to FiveThirtyEight, the Giants are a coin flip to secure a trip to the postseason as an NFC wild card. Three out of their five remaining games are against NFC East rivals, including two games against the Philadelphia Eagles, who hold the top record in the NFL at 11-1.
The Giants have only two more remaining home games against the Eagles (Week 14) this Sunday and the Indianapolis Colts (Week 17) on New Year’s Day. The Giants have three difficult road games against winning opponents, including the Commanders (Week 15), Minnesota Vikings (Week 16), and Eagles (Week 18).
Despite the tie last week, the Giants still covered as a +2.5 home dog at MetLife Stadium. They’re 3-1 ATS during their down cycle over the last four weeks. Over their last nine games, the Giants are 7-2 ATS.
Worst ATS Teams: Bucs, Rams, Broncos, Jaguars
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the most fade-worthy team this season with a 3-8-1 record against the spread. Injuries wiped out their offensive line in the preseason, and it took almost half the season before their top wideouts recovered from injuries. Quarterback Tom Brady was also in the middle of a well-publicized breakup with supermodel Gisele Bündchen, and he struggled while coping with a midseason divorce.
The defending champion Los Angeles Rams are 3-9 and had such a horrible season that they won’t qualify for the postseason or have a chance to defend their title. The Rams were plagued by injuries to quarterback Matthew Stafford, wide receiver Cooper Kupp, and defensive end Aaron Donald. With Stafford on the IR, things are so bad in Tinsel Town that the Rams claimed a washed-up Baker Mayfield off waivers.
The Rams average only 16.8 points per game as the fourth-lowest scoring team in the NFL. When you can’t score points, it’s hard to cover the point spread, which is why the Rams are 3-7-2 and have the second-worst ATS record in the NFL. The offensively challenged Rams rarely had a chance to backdoor any covers.
The Jacksonville Jaguars and Denver Broncos struggled to cover games this season with a 4-8 ATS record. The public overvalued the Jaguars after Doug Pederson took over as head coach. They’re a much better squad than last year’s dismal season under Urban Meyer, but the young Jaguars are still trying to figure out how to close out games.
The Broncos have the worst offense in the NFL this season, averaging 13.8 points per game. Betting the points under in every Broncos game has been extremely profitable this season with an 11-1 record.
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