NBA Odds Say Golden State Title Nearly a Foregone Conclusion

Posted on: May 22, 2018, 10:30h. 

Last updated on: May 22, 2018, 09:15h.

NBA odds in Las Vegas have the Golden State Warriors heavily favored to defend their title and win their third Larry O’Brien Trophy in four years.

NBA odds Las Vegas Steph Curry
According to NBA odds, Steph Curry and the Warriors are a slam dunk to win the Finals. (Image: Kyle Terada/USA TODAY Sports)

After a dominating 126-85 win on Sunday night to go up 2-1 in the best-of-seven series, oddsmakers greatly shortened odds on Golden State advancing to their fourth consecutive NBA Finals.

The price at the Westgate SuperBook has ballooned from -330 before game three, to currently at -1000. The Houston Rockets are now long underdogs at +260.

The Warriors’ line implies their chances of emerging out of the Western Conference at nearly 91 percent. A $100 bet and Golden State eliminating Houston, which had the best regular season record in the entire NBA, nets only $10.

Oddsmakers have long felt the West winner will ultimately go on to win the NBA Finals. The SuperBook’s title odds are Golden State (1/7), Houston (8/1), Cleveland Cavaliers (12/1), and Boston Celtics (16/1).

At 1/7, the SuperBook feels there’s an 87.5 percent chance the Warriors are the last team standing. A winning $100 ticket nets just $14.29.

Cleveland Rebounds

After two losses in Boston, Cleveland defended its own court by winning games three and four to even the series. With momentum seemingly all on the Cavs’ side, oddsmakers are adjusting series odds on the Eastern Conference Finals.

Despite heading back to Boston, and the Celtics having home court advantage in what’s become a best-of-three series, the SuperBook has Cleveland the favorite at -190 (implied odds 65.5 percent).

Game four of the series cost CG Technology sportsbooks. The operator said 1.5 times more tickets, and 1.4 times more money, was put on the Cavs giving the Celtics seven points. They won by nine.

Boston is a different team at home. They’re 9-0 this postseason, and don’t need to win a game in Cleveland to advance. But bettors would much prefer to have the best player on the planet on their side, which is presumably why they’re printing slips on LeBron James’ Cavs.

Through 15 games this postseason, James is averaging 33.7 points, 8.7 rebounds, and nine assists per game.

History Repeats

If the NBA odds are correct, the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers are headed for their fourth consecutive Finals battle. Should that happen, the Warriors will presumably open as a heavy favorite.

Over the past three NBA Finals between the two teams, Golden State has won 11 games to Cleveland’s seven. And last year’s Finals were the least competitive series of the three.

The Warriors won by two games by 20 or more points, and never seemed even remotely threatened by the then-defending champion Cavs. The series was the last for Kyrie Irving in a Cleveland uniform, and LeBron’s team has endured a series of roster changes ever since.

The team seemed to find its groove against Toronto, but then lost it during the first two games in Boston. To make the Finals competitive against Steph Curry and Kevin Durant’s team, Cleveland will need to play their absolute best ball of the year.