Mets or Yankees: Determining The Better Playoffs Bet

Posted on: October 6, 2022, 02:56h. 

Last updated on: October 6, 2022, 02:57h.

The baseball postseason has arrived; a word of caution for New York baseball fans: Overmanaging may be a factor in the Mets and Buck Showalter and the Yankees’ Aaron Boone.

Undoubtedly, the season’s biggest news is Aaron Judge’s record-breaking 62nd home run, seen above. What will the post-season bring? (Image: Getty)

Showalter is toying with the idea of holding out ace Max Scherzer until Game 3 against the San Diego Padres, and Boone was such a fun-hater that he pulled Luis Severino seven innings into a no-hitter on Monday. That’s despite Severino reaching 100 mph with his final pitch of the game.

We have seen this trend across Major League baseball for a few years now, and there is usually an analytical explanation that nobody except the quant heads understands. Maybe, old-school baseball managers would never shut down a no-hitter or a perfect game.

Yet Showalter did the latter with Scherzer after he threw six perfect innings against Milwaukee on Sept. 19.

So beware of overmanaging when wagering this pending Mets wild-card series against San Diego, which hopefully is Step 1 toward a postseason Subway Series against the Yankees. The Bronx team must first play the Rays or Guardians once their wild-card series is completed.

Betting Lines Heading Into the Playoffs

The Mets, coming off a 101-win regular season, are the +900 fifth choice to win the World Series, while the Yankees are the +450 third choice. (The L.A. Dodgers are the +340 favorite, Houston is +425, and the defending champion Atlanta Braves are +500.

The Mets open tomorrow, so let’s begin with them. Showalter has strongly stated that he plans to use deGrom as his Game 1 starter and Chris Bassit as his Game 2 starter if the Mets win the opener at Citi Field. That would allow him to save Scherzer for a Game 2 start in an NLDS series, along with a Game 5 relief appearance, while also allowing deGrom to start Game 1 and 4.

If the Mets lose Game 1, Scherzer would be the Game 2 starter, Showalter said in a podcast with two New York Post baseball columnists before slightly walking back those statements later Wednesday.

Showalter is a solid baseball guy, but his past postseason decisions are the stuff of second-guessing legend. In 1995 he put Mariano Rivera into a tied game in the eighth inning against Seattle after starter and ace David Cone had walked in the winning run. Rivera got out of the eighth and retired one batter in the ninth inning before Showalter brought in Roger McDowell, who surrendered a two-run double to Edgar Martinez. The Yanks had turned a 2-0 series lead into a 3-2 defeat in the Game 5 series. Showalter was let go after that game.

So while his thinking is sound in wanting to get the most out of his two aces, deGrom and Scherzer, his subsequent hemming and hawing do not exactly inspire certitude. Showalter often manages by the seat of his pants, and his starting pitchers have little experience facing the Padres since they made the trade deadline additions of Juan Soto, Josh Bell, and Brandon Drury (plus closer Josh Hader). This is an entirely different Padres team than the one the Mets went 2-4 against San Diego earlier in the season (they have not played since July 24.)

The Padres are sending out ace Yu Darvish  (16-8 with 197 strikeouts in 194 1/2 innings, fourth in WHIP at 0.95m and tied for 2nd in quality starts with 25) for Game 1.

San Diego’s Game 2 and Game 3 starters are TBD. Mets second baseman Jeff McNeil led all major leaguers with  .326 average, and nobody on the Padres was among the 11 players who hit .300 or better. The Padres struck out 1,327 times, which does not bode all that terribly while going against a Mets pitching staff that led the majors with 1,565 Ks. Only the Mets, Nats, and Cardinals whiffed fewer times.

San Diego also had a team batting average of .231, but was third in the majors with 574 walks so they will wait for their pitches. deGrom has been grooving fastballs down the middle of the plate lately more than we are accustomed to seeing, so watch for that.

The line for Game 1 is Mets -1 1/2 and +140 on the money line, and the strikeouts over/unders are 5 1/2 (-135) for Scherzer and 5 1/2 (+110) for Darvish.

Both starters have hits allowed prop lines of 4 1/2. On the offensive end, the most enticing lines are Pete Alonso of the Mets to homer (+380) after he led the team with 40, and Francisco Lindor to homer at +600. San Diego’s lading HR hitter (Manny Machado with 32), is at +450 to go yard at Draft Kings and +520 at Fan Duel.

Fan Duel also has McNeil and Soto at +9500 to record four or more hits. If we see that from Soto, the Shaky Showalter factor quadruples (although you cannot bet on that particular peculiarity). The series prices are Mets in 2 (+185), Mets in 3 (+275), Padres in 2 (+400) and Padres in 3 (+300).

The Yankees have the luxury of a bye until next week. After the angst on display waiting so many games for Aaron Judge to hit home run No. 62, they and their fans could use a time-out. Fun-hater Boone sat Judge for the season’s final game at Texas and denied him a chance for the triple crown, which was either cruel or just plain stupid overthinking. But major league managers are like that.

Looking to November

The Yanks will get the winner of the Tampa-Cleveland series, and they went 9-6 against the Rays and 5-1 against Cleveland, not having played them since July 6. Like the other bye teams, the Dodgers, Astros and Braves have the shortest odds.

The Guardians have the longest at +3500, and the Rays are +2800 for all those Mets fans who double as Yankees haters. On the flip side of that same coin, the Padres are +2800, the Cardinals are +2200, and the Phillies are +2000.

For those who want the Yanks to beat the Mets in the World Series, or vice versa, here are your lines … although we are still far away from that possibility. But it is wagerable at a few books: Mets to beat Yankees is +3200 at Fan Duel and +2800 at Draft Kings, and +3000 at PointsBet. Yankees to beat Mets is +3000 at PointsBet, +2800 at Draft Kings, and +4400 at Fan Duel.