Late 2020 Betting Money on President Donald Trump, Oddsmakers Shorten Reelection Odds
Posted on: October 20, 2020, 08:48h.
Last updated on: October 20, 2020, 10:05h.
The 2020 election is just two weeks away, and bettors have recently been putting massive amounts of cash on a President Donald Trump victory.
Since The New York Post published alleged emails from 2020 Democratic candidate Joe Biden’s son, Hunter, detailing his business in Ukraine and China, the vast majority of the betting action has been on Trump. Oddschecker says approximately 75 percent of all the money wagered on the presidential outcome over the past week has been on the incumbent.
As a result, William Hill changed Trump’s victory chances from 13/8 (38.1 percent) a week ago, to 7/5 (41.67 percent) today. Conversely, Biden’s line went from 1/2 (66.67 percent) to 4/7 (57.14 percent).
Political betting has not yet been approved in any state with legal sports betting. That’s not the case in the UK, where gambling on political outcomes is a long-cherished pastime.
“Every single sportsbook on our UK website cut the odds of Donald Trump winning the 2020 US election,” said Oddschecker Head of Marketing Sam Eaton.
For those who are experiencing a sense of déjà vu, you’re not alone. Four years ago, oddsmakers and pollsters had Hillary Clinton as a nearly sure thing. In fact, Irish bookmaker Paddy Power paid out bets on the former first lady before she even won the election.
Roughly 61 percent of all bets on the 2016 election were on a Trump upset, which, of course, came true. The 2020 showdown seems to be following a similar trend — the Democratic candidate with a heavy betting and polling lead, followed by a late charge from Trump.
The Donald Trump effect is really starting to take hold now with his odds to win reelection [improving] from last week, and therefore the chance of him causing an upset, as he did in 2016, an even bigger possibility,” Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom told the Las Vegas Review-Journal.
Rosbottom added that Trump is becoming the favorite in Florida, which many political pundits say is the most critical state to his reelection bid.
“The reason behind this move is that we have been seeing some of our sharper political bettors back Trump in the last few days,” added Bovada Head Oddsmaker Pat Morrow. “If we continue to see sharp money on Trump, we would consider moving the line even further.”
Bovada has Biden in the lead at 10/17 (62.96 percent), and Trump at 13/10 (43.48 percent).
Still Plenty of Biden Momentum
Though there’s some strong betting action on Trump, the pollsters say Biden remains the strong favorite to become the next Commander-in-Chief. The Real Clear Politics polling average gives the Democrat an 8.6-point lead over Trump.
On the political betting exchange PredictIt, Biden’s shares of winning on November 3 also have not substantially moved. Biden’s shares are trading at 65 cents, Trump’s at a distant 40 cents.
The final two weeks will see both candidates try and find needles in a haystack: undecided voters in key swing states. Trump’s last-minute stretch of campaign ads are largely being funded by Las Vegas Sands billionaire Sheldon Adelson, who recently gave the President’s reelection effort $75 million.
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