Las Vegas Population Forecast to Increase More Than 40 Percent

Posted on: July 24, 2021, 05:30h. 

Last updated on: July 25, 2021, 07:11h.

The Las Vegas population is an estimated 2.38 million people as of the end of 2020. UNLV’s Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER) says it will only grow over the next four decades.

Las Vegas population Nevada Clark County
A neighborhood in Southern Nevada is seen with the Las Vegas Strip skyline on the horizon. The Las Vegas population is expected to greatly increase between now and 2060. (Image: Las Vegas Review-Journal)

Southern Nevada real estate agents, commercial and residential developers, future home sellers, and casino resorts will have plenty to cheer about in the CBER annual Clark County population forecast. The CBER research team predicts that Las Vegas and Southern Nevada will be home to approximately 3.383 million people by 2060 — a staggering 42 percent surge.

The forecast gives policymakers and government agencies insight into how many people to expect to reside in Southern Nevada over the next 10, 20, 30, and 40 years. The forecast influences decisions on everything from how many more schools need to be built to how many police officers, firefighters, and doctors need to be hired to sustain the growth,” the CBER report explained.

The data influences a variety of government decisions, and is also utilized by various industries and business sectors. The CBER outlook means Las Vegas casinos will likely have a larger local customer base in the coming decades, something all off-Strip resorts heavily rely on. 

Las Vegas Rush

Clark County and the Las Vegas metro are attractive for numerous reasons. 

Low housing costs compared with much of California, no state income tax, and year-round sunshine make Southern Nevada an idyllic place to call home. Las Vegas being the casino capital of the US and its ever-growing tourism industry providing an abundance of jobs with careers of all types only adds to the appeal.

The CBER only four years ago estimated that the Las Vegas population in 2060 would be around 3.09 million people. This week’s amended forecast represents a further increase of nearly 300,000 residents.

Despite COVID-19 shutting down Southern Nevada’s casino resorts — the region’s economic turbine — Las Vegas’ population grew 2.2 percent in 2020, or about 50,900 more people. 

Locals were credited for keeping many Nevada casinos afloat during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. And though a recent spike in new coronavirus cases as a result of the more contagious delta variant has returned mandatory face masks for many casino workers, experts say air travel to the Strip is rebounding.

“The local casinos, places you can drive to rather than fly to, are helping the state keep its head above water,” Michael Lawton, senior research analyst for the Nevada Gaming Control Board, explained late last month. 

Growth Taper

The UNLV Las Vegas population report calculates year-over-year increases of at least one percent through 2035. But after that, the university believes the population swelling will subside to 0.7 percent in 2040, 0.4 percent in 2050, and 0.2 percent in 2060. 

The population ages over time. As a result, the rate of growth, which exceeded the national average over the past 50 years, moderates and eventually moves below the national rate of growth,” the CBER study said.

“That is, by 2050, the population growth rate falls to marginally below the projected long-term national population growth rate. As the Clark County economy continues to mature, the population growth stabilizes around 0.2 percent after 2056,” the forecast concluded.