Joe Biden Increasing 2020 Democratic Lead, Political Bettors Believe Former VP Will Win Party Nod

Posted on: January 8, 2020, 02:08h. 

Last updated on: January 8, 2020, 03:00h.

Joe Biden, the former vice president of the United States, has extended his lead in the race to secure the Democratic Party’s nomination for the 2020 presidential election.

Joe Biden 2020 odds Democratic
All the 2020 Democratic presidential hopefuls are chasing Joe Biden, but the 77-year-old is distancing himself from the pack. (Image: Andrew Harnik/AP)

PredictIt shares of Biden winning the party’s 2020 ticket are trading at 41 cents. That’s an increase of 14 cents over the past month. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders trails Biden at 31 cents. The perennial presidential candidate’s shares have increased in value by 12 cents during the same period.

Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren is heading in the opposite direction, her shares dropping from 16 cents to 10 cents between December 8 and today. South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg is also at 10 cents, and billionaire Michael Bloomberg rounds out the top five at nine cents.

Biden maintains a controlling position in the polls. The Real Clear Politics polling average has him with a nine-point national lead over his closest challenger.

Political War Time

We’re officially in a presidential election year, and it could potentially coincide with being a war-time election – though those odds are thought to be long at this juncture.

President Donald Trump began the New Year by ordering a drone attack that killed Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani, who the US had long considered a person who supports terrorism. Iran retaliated last night by firing missiles at two Iraqi military bases housing US troops. No one was harmed.

On Wednesday, Trump said the US would not respond militarily, and that Iran was “standing down” in the conflict. Instead of war, the president said new economic sanctions would be placed on Iran.

Trump defended the drone attack on claims that Soleimani was planning an “imminent attack” on the US. Biden responded to NBC News’ Lester Holt this week, “Could be true, but I don’t give him the benefit of the doubt because he’s lied so much about virtually everything.”

The ex-VP added, “Look, no matter who the nominee is, do you think this president’s not going to lie about them? You think this president is not going to make up lies? The more he’s attacked me, the more I have gone up in the polls.”

Primary Odds

The primary season officially gets underway with the Iowa caucuses on February 3. And on PredictIt, Sanders has a controlling lead, his shares of winning the Hawkeye State trading at 46 cents. Biden is a distant second at a quarter.

Sanders is expected to win back-to-back primaries in the northeast by claiming New Hampshire, his home state’s neighbor. The Senator’s shares in the Granite State are at 59 cents, Biden next at 25 cents.

Biden is expected to pick up his first primary win in Nevada, his PredictIt shares at 46 cents, narrowly ahead of Sanders at 43 cents. South Carolina is the final primary before Super Tuesday. Biden is nearly a sure thing in the Palmetto State, his shares trading at 81 cents.

As for the RCP polling averages in the four aforementioned primary states, Sanders leads narrowly in Iowa (+0.3) and New Hampshire (+4.0). Biden is up big in Nevada (+9.0) and South Carolina (+18.7).