IG Group CEO Corcoran Queries Prediction Market Volume, Sees Supreme Court Stepping In

IG Group (LON: IGG) CEO Breon Corcoran has questions about how some of the largest prediction market operators articulate volume statistics while noting the U.S. Supreme Court (SCOTUS) could soon provide needed legal clarity on sports event contracts.

Speaking at a recent event, Corcoran noted that clarity on the fate of sports derivatives could be coming “sooner than we anticipated,” adding that IG is ready to deal with a potentially adverse ruling from the Supreme Court. Some sell-side analysts have speculated that the high court could hear a prediction market case between next month and April 2027.

Following recent diverging rulings from appellate courts, it’s widely believed that gaming companies, prediction market operators and state regulators — even the NFL — want the Supreme Court to decide the fate of sports event contracts and do so as soon as possible.

For now, the timing appears murky because while there are several amicus briefs related to prediction markets sitting at the Supreme Court, the court’s recently released schedule for its upcoming session doesn’t include a prediction market case.

Legal Clarity Is Essential

Corcoran’s view on potential removal of legal ambiguity surrounding sports event contracts is meaningful because IG Group, a member of the FTSE 100 Index, is in the process of acquiring Underdog, putting the buyer squarely in the hypercompetitive U.S. prediction market arena.

The British trading platform provider said in July it’s paying $1.1 billion upfront for Underdog with an earnout of up to $200 million payable to Underdog shareholders, indicating the deal could be worth as much as $1.3 billion.

Corcoran noted that IG Group is prepared for the possibility that the Supreme Court will rule against sports event contracts. In industry circles, there’s belief that such a ruling would be advantageous to sportsbook operators because those companies could revert back to focusing on their core businesses while potentially benefiting from the loss of a competitive threat.

There’s also sentiment indicating that in the wake of myriad prediction market legal controversies, more states will warm to the idea of legalizing sports wagering in a bid to raise revenue – something they’re not getting from sports derivatives traded on yes/no exchanges.

Corcoran Has Volume Questions

Speaking at the event, Corcoran said some of the largest prediction markets are “talking up their notional traded volume with great gusto,” adding that the metric that really matters is net gaming revenue, not notional turnover.

While prediction market notional volume is often compared to sports betting handle, it’s a flawed comparison because the former measures the value of all traded contracts, not the amount of capital spent by traders.

Corcoran points out that IG is the only publicly traded company that’s discussed prediction markets revenue with any regularity, though he acknowledged Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD) has done so in the past.