Macquarie: Kalshi Notional Volume Reaches $33 Billion in June

Total prediction market volume exploded to more than $50 billion last month, fueled primarily by the start of the World Cup, according to a new report from Macquarie.

Kalshi, the largest purveyor of all-or-nothing contracts, commanded $33 billion of that turnover as its market share grew to 65%, up from 57% in May. In a new report to clients, Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon points out that high-profile strategic partnerships, such as Kalshi’s massive World Cup expansion deal with ADI Predictstreet, are providing substantial momentum for expanding global prediction market turnover.

The World Cup is supercharging prediction markets in unexpected ways. For instance, a recent YouGov survey confirmed the tournament gave Kalshi’s brand a massive lift, elevating its visibility alongside traditional heavyweight sponsors like Coke, Pepsi, and Visa.

Money Talks

This surge in trading volume isn’t just a vanity metric; it directly drives institutional investor interest—and higher valuations—for privately held platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. The hype is bleeding into the public markets, too.

Strong data out of the prediction space has repeatedly acted as a catalyst for shares of retail-heavy platforms like DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) and Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD) in recent months.

Reports surfaced last month pointing to Kalshi potentially pursuing another capital raise that would vault its valuation to $40 billion. CEO and co-founder Tarek Mansour also said the company is mulling an initial public offering (IPO), though that event will not occur this year.

The point is as prediction volume grows, proves sticky and generates increased interest outside the world of sports, professional investors may be willing to pay up for the privilege of investing in these companies.

More June Momentum for Prediction Markets

Kalshi’s market share and volume growth are eye-catching, but the company didn’t own all of the June prediction markets buzz. DraftKings got in on the act as well with the launch of its DKeX exchange, which allows it to better control its economic fate in this new industry.

“DKeX represents another step toward the convergence of sportsbooks and PM, with DKNG increasingly viewing PM as a strategic long-term product extension rather than a defensive response to Kalshi,” says Beynon.

The Macquarie analyst also highlighted rumors, which emerged in late June, that Facebook parent Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) is working on its own prediction market as another sign the young industry is going increasingly mainstream.