Macquarie: Kalshi Notional Volume Reaches $33 Billion in June

Helped by a variety of factors, namely the start of the World Cup, prediction market volume surged to more than $50 billion last month, according to Macquarie.

Kalshi, the largest purveyor of all-or-nothing contracts, commanded $33 billion of that turnover as its market share grew to 65%, up from 57% in May. In a new report to clients, Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon points out that strategic partnerships, such as Kalshi’s deal with ADI Predictstreet, are providing momentum for expanding prediction market turnover.

The World Cup is sparking prediction markets in other ways. For example, a recent YouGov survey confirms the tournament is stoking increased benefits for Kalshi’s brand, putting it in a pantheon with the likes of Coke, Pepsi and Visa.

Money Talks

Ascending prediction market volume is pertinent from a financial perspective because its drives interest (and willingness to pay up) among institutional investors when it comes to privately held companies such as Kalshi and Polymarket.

Likewise, positive prediction market updates have, at a various points in recent months, been sparks for shares of companies such as DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) and Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD).

Reports surfaced last month pointing to Kalshi potentially pursuing another capital raise that would vault its valuation to $40 billion. CEO and co-founder Tarek Mansour also said the company is mulling an initial public offering (IPO), though that event will not occur this year.

The point is as prediction volume grows, proves sticky and generates increased interest outside the world of sports, professional investors may be willing to pay up for the privilege of investing in these companies.

More June Momentum for Prediction Markets

Kalshi’s market share and volume growth are eye-catching, but the company didn’t own all of the June prediction markets buzz. DraftKings got in on the act as well with the launch of its DKeX exchange, which allows it to better control its economic fate in this new industry.

“DKeX represents another step toward the convergence of sportsbooks and PM, with DKNG increasingly viewing PM as a strategic long-term product extension rather than a defensive response to Kalshi,” says Beynon.

The Macquarie analyst also highlighted rumors, which emerged in late June, that Facebook parent Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) is working on its own prediction market as another sign the young industry is going increasingly mainstream.