GOP Rep. Steil Introduces Trump-Backed Bill to Ban Lawmakers From Prediction Markets

• Steil, a Wisconsin Republican, introduces a provision to ban members of Congress and their families from trading political event contracts
• The proposal has the support of President Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson
• Some political observers believe it’s already in jeopardy if it’s attached to broader legislation pertaining to stock trading

Rep. Bryan Steil (R-WI) today rolled out a provision that if signed into law would prohibit members of Congress and their families, including spouses, from trading political event contracts on prediction markets.

Steil, who chairs the House Administration Committee — the committee that sets the rules and enforces conduct for members and their staff — joins a cadre of colleagues who, in varying forms, have called on Congress to halt prediction markets trading by members, staff and high-ranking agency and White House officials.

Lawmakers should be writing policy, not wagering on its outcome,” wrote Steil in an X post earlier today (June 18). “I just introduced legislation to prohibit lawmakers from utilizing prediction markets to wager on government policy or political outcomes.”

Steil has the gravitas to chime in on the issue of prediction markets trading by members of Congress and their staff because he’s a member of the House Financial Services Committee and the chairman of the Crypto Subcommittee. There’s a clear, increasing intersection between digital currency and yes/no exchanges.

Steil Prediction Market Proposal Could Face Uphill Fight

Steil’s proposal to ban members of Congress and their employees from trading on electoral, political and policy-tied event contracts has the support of Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and President Trump but getting the pitch to the president’s desk could be a tall order.

The Senate already embraced a rule change that bars members and their employees from trading on yes/no exchanges. Steil’s Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act requires Senate passage and given the upper chamber’s prior movement on the issue, there may be bipartisan support for the bill there, provided it’s detached from the stock trading bill.

Steil’s bill proposes fining offenders $2,000 or 10% of the transaction size, whichever is greater, along with the net profit from the trade.

His bill says members can’t “use their Members’ Representational Allowance, Senate personnel and office expense account, or political contributions or donations to pay the fine.”

Congress Homing in on Prediction Market Trading

Amid scandals, some allegedly tied to the White House, involving insider trading on prediction markets, Congress is increasingly paying attention. There’s emerging bipartisan support to prohibit members and staff from dealing in policy and political derivatives.

Some members have taken office-specific steps, proclaiming prediction market as no-go zones for themselves and their employees. For Steil, it’s a matter of increasing trust between Congress and voters.

“The American people deserve to know their Member of Congress is not profiting off insider information. The Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act ensures that cannot happen,” said Steil in a statement. 

“This legislation is critical to restoring the public’s trust in their elected officials. Lawmakers should be writing policy, not wagering on its outcome,” the lawmaker added.