Electoral College Odds Predict Democratic Win, But Biden Remains Unpopular Among Bettors
Posted on: April 16, 2020, 05:00h.
Last updated on: April 16, 2020, 06:14h.
Odds on the Electoral College outcome this November have been released on the political exchange PredictIt, and bettors are snagging up shares of a Democratic Party win.
PredictIt has shares on both the Republican and Democratic parties winning by various amounts. They are: 280+, 210-279, 150-209, 100-149, 60-99, 30-59, 10-29, 1-9.
As of Thursday evening, both “GOP by 60-99” and “Dems 60-99” shares were trading at 11 cents. GOP by 30-59 and Dems 30-59 were next at 10 cents each.
Democratic shares in other categories are being purchased at a higher price compared to Republican shares.
Winning Margin GOP $ Dems $
280+ 2 cents 5 cents
210-279 2 cents 9 cents
150-209 3 cents 8 cents
100-149 7 cents 9 cents
60-99 11 cents 11 cents
30-59 10 cents 10 cents
10-29 7 cents 8 cents
1-9 4 cents 4 cents
In the rarest event of a tie, PredictIt says the Republican Party’s 1-9 market will be declared the winner. Electoral College votes won by other candidates representing other parties or running independently will have no bearing on the outcome.
Since debuting the Electoral College market yesterday, 200,000 shares have been traded. For an explanation of how the Electoral College works, click here.
In 2016, despite losing the popular vote to Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump won the election with 304 electoral votes (a margin of victory of 77 votes).
Bettors and Biden
Political bettors are wagering more money on a Democratic Party 2020 win than on the GOP. But they aren’t overly enthused with Joe Biden being the party’s nominee.
The former VP is the presumptive ticket. But in the PredictIt market asking who wins the presidential election, Trump is the favorite. The President’s shares of winning reelection are trading at 49 cents.
Though recently garnering the endorsements of former President Barack Obama and his 2020 primary challenger, Sen. Bernie Sanders, Biden’s shares of winning in November are at 45 cents.
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) is at four cents, and VP Mike Pence at three cents.
Though bettors aren’t under the belief that Biden will beat Trump, they do feel that some Democratic Party candidate will. “Which party will win the 2020 US presidential election?” has Democratic shares at 51 cents, and Republican shares at 49 cents.
The contradiction between the markets shows that bettors still aren’t sold on Biden. That’s different from poll respondents, as the Real Clear Politics polling average of a head-to-head has Biden with a 5.5-point lead.
Biden’s pick for his vice president could alter both betting markets and polls. California Sen. Kamala Harris remains the betting favorite at 23 cents. Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar is next at 23 cents.
Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren is third at 11 cents. The former 2020 presidential candidate said she would accept Biden’s offer should he extend one.
Other notables include Stacey Abrams and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (nine cents), and former First Lady Michelle Obama (six cents).